Wednesday, March 31, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Hourly perspective for majors’

Posted: 31 Mar 2010 06:30 AM PDT

USD/JPY holds above 93.00

Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:38 AM PDT

After US negative ADP data, USD/JPY retreat from daily highs to test 93.00 support area, past days’ high,where pair is actually quoting. 4 hours charts show a probable downside corrective movement ahead if the level gives up, thus 20 SMA around 92.70 with a strong bullish slope should keep the downside limited; general sentiment remains bullish in the pair, and if back above 93.40/50 area, pair should attempt to test next strong resistance area, the 93.75 past January high.

US ADP data worse than expected

Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:19 AM PDT

ADP private survey shows a very negative reading of -23K ahead of NFP, instead of the expected increase of 40K. reading is even worse than previous month -20K; dollar is quickly losing ground against major rivals in a first spike, while treasuries jump to the upside. Seems dollar  bearish trend is meant to extend today, as fresh lows are seen against Pound, Euro and Swissy.

GBP/USD technical perspective

Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:00 AM PDT

As expected on last updates, Pound reached the 1.5120 resistance level, corrected to 1.5050 support area, and then break higher reaching currently 1.5160 zone. I see some consolidation around this level, as 4 hours indicators look a bit exhausted to the upside, suggesting some short lived downside corrective movements; supports form current level lie at the 1.5120 strong support, ahead of 1.5085 and 1.5050 mentioned area.  A break above today’s high, could send the pair to test 1.5230/40 area, where 200 EMA in the 4 hours charts should halt the upside at least at a first attempt.

Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD

Posted: 31 Mar 2010 04:18 AM PDT

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 31 Mar 2010 04:17 AM PDT

Majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Slighty Bullish

Gbp/Usd: Bullish

Usd/Chf: Bearish

Usd/Jpy: Bullish

Eur/Gbp: Bearish

Eur/Jpy:  Bullish

Gbp/Jpy: Bullish

Ahead of Easter holidays

Posted: 31 Mar 2010 04:15 AM PDT

Hi everyone and welcome back! No much introductions today, most of the world has changed hours but not here, so to catch up with previous GMT time, I need to wake up way too much earlier, and I’m still not getting used! maybe this long week end will help me to adjust mi internal clock to winter time in the north side of the globe. Anyway! dollar and yen are down across the board, I do believe big part due to some profit taking and position adjustment ahead of Easter holidays. We have a good number of US reports later today, so check the calendar, while i keep looking the technical points for today:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day! 
Posted by at 6:16 PM 0 comments

My Finance Videos

My envy post generated some emails, and I should note I have easy to absorb videos on this subject. Many of the key insights into a series of videos I now keep on my personal website here. They are done in Camtasia, like Khan Academy, and last from 30 to 50 minutes. These videos complement my book, Finding Alpha: The Search for Alpha When Risk and Return Break Down. Then there's my SSRN paper on Risk and Return.

Each includes a downloadable PowerPoint for easy copying into your own work! Indeed, given my book is not exactly on the front table at Barnes and Noble, you probably could get away with presenting these as your own without much fear.

Ch1: Extended Intro--basically, the book in a nutshell

Ch2: Asset Pricing Theory--good replacement reading for MBAs

Ch3: History of Empirical Tests--overview of academic empirical asset pricing tests, rather unique

Ch4: Scope of Empirical Failure--highlights where the theory fails

Ch5: Where Risk Premiums Appear--notes areas where risk premiums exist

Ch6: The Flawed Assumption--outlines the flawed assumption in standard theory

Ch7: My New Theory--outlines my new theory

Ch8: Alpha Examples--examples of alpha in finance, mainly based on practical experience

Ch9: Tactical Recommendations--highlights various implications of my theory
Posted by at 5:29 PM 0 comments

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Best pair to trade now: GBP/USD

Posted: 30 Mar 2010 04:33 AM PDT

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 30 Mar 2010 04:31 AM PDT

Majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Slighty Bullish

Gbp/Usd: Bullish

Usd/Chf: Slightly Bearish

Usd/Jpy: Slightly Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Bearish

Eur/Jpy: Slightly Bullish

Gbp/Jpy: Bullish

Starting the day

Posted: 30 Mar 2010 04:29 AM PDT

Hi everyone and welcome back. Have been fighting already a week with this Internet connection, but well, I can’t get nothing better at this point. Anyway, Asian session come and go with dollar following past Monday’s trend, and losing ground against major rivals, particularly Aud and Yen; but while first one hold gains ahead of a new hike rate next April, Yen fall back to past day’s range. Euro printed a fresh high, yet was unable to extend the rally, and quotes around key now support 1.3485 zone, while Pound seems ready to test 1.5120 resistance level, favored by better than expected GDP and Current Account data early Europe; i don’t see that rally extending much more, and I will made a post right now about it. We have a commodity currencies days, so watch them as they will lead dollar’s way. Here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day! 
Posted by at 5:03 PM 0 comments
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