Friday, April 29, 2011

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

First Webinar of the Beginners Corner

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 07:26 AM PDT

Don't miss today the first webinar of the Begginers Corner, today at 17:00 GMT.

 

Besides the basis of forex  and technical analysis I will be sharing with you some trading tips.

See you all there!

 

You can register here:

 

http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8b2a71fb-3109-457f-96fb-cb3643f06e40

Majors hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 06:49 AM PDT

EUR/USD: ready to hit fresh highs

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 02:40 AM PDT

Dollar eases on strong commodities and stocks

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 02:27 AM PDT

London could be closed, but not the rest of Europe: DAX is about to break yesterday's high, US futures are also in positive territory,oil nearing $ 113.00 a barrel and gold firm above $ 1530/oz. Dollar is then falling across the board, with EUR/USD at 1.4867, approaching to 1.4881 yearly high; above, next resistances come at 1.4920 and 1.4950 for today, while 1.4840 and 1.4810 become supports.

GBP/USD is up to 1.6685, with 1.6715 and 1.6750 as immediate target areas, while supports lie at 1.6630 area and 1.6600, previous high.

 

SNB's Hildebrand pushes USD/CHF to record lows

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 01:55 AM PDT

Hildebrand come to the wires stating that despitecurrent Swissy strength, the economy is growing at a stronger pace than anticipated; while market is extremely thing, USD/CHF lost over 50 pips in the last hour, and despite extreme oversold readings in the daily chart, the pair approaches to past Wednesday low @ 0.8670; below 0.8660 pair should extend fall to 0.8600/20 price zone. The upside is capped now by 0.8740 aarea, while far away, 0.8900 is the level to overcome to talk about an interim bottom and a potential reversal in the pair.


Starting the day

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 01:06 AM PDT

Hi everyone, and welcome to this blog. Friday starts with a soft tone, with Tokyo on holiday and majors limited to tight ranges; London will also be closed today, as per the royal weeding, so expect volume to remain pretty low in current European session.

Regarding what we saw late Thursday in the US session, with the dollar gaining ground across the board, I believe there was mostly profit taking; the dollar bearish trend has no signs of reversion, and deeps of mayors are still seen as buying oportunities in the market.

Some minor data pending in Europe, ahead of CAD GDP, maybe the only interesting fundamental report today; here is the link for todays' calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

 

Have a great trading day!
Posted by at 5:45 PM 0 comments

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Good Riff from Krugman

Paull Krugman is now a joke(see this town hall meeting), but he's clearly a smart guy. I think he just decided that he could do more good shilling for Democrats by any means necessary, and if his intermediate target is helping Democrats, being more evenhanded, or even courteous, may or may not be optimal, it is too early to evaluate. In the long run, I think it hurts his intermediate objective, and more importantly think his long run objective is wrong so he's doomed anyway (in the same way I think those who believe in false Gods are wrong, they won't go where they think they are going).

Here he is in better days. This address he gave to the European Association for Evolutionary Political Economy in 1996 still reads pretty well:

Economics and evolutionary theory are surprisingly similar. It is often asserted that economic theory draws its inspiration from physics, and that it should become more like biology. If that's what you think, you should do two things. First, read a text on evoluationary theory, like John Maynard Smith's Evolutionary Genetics. You will be startled at how much it looks like a textbook on microeconomics. Second, try to explain a simple economic concept, like supply and demand, to a physicist. You will discover that our whole style of thinking, of building up aggregative stories from individual decisions, is not at all the way they think.

So there is a close affinity in method and indeed of intellectual style between economics and evolution. But there is another interesting parallel: both economics and evolution are model-oriented, algebra-heavy subjects that are the subject of intense interest from people who cannot stand algebra. And as a result in each case it is very important to distinguish between the field as it is perceived by outsiders (and portrayed in popular books) and what it is really like. We all know that economics is a field in which the most famous authors are often people who are regarded, with good reason, as not even worth arguing with by almost everyone in the profession. Do you remember that global best-seller The Coming Great Depression of 1990 by Ravi Batra? And I guess it is no secret that even John Kenneth Galbraith, still the public's idea of a great economist, looks to most serious economists like an intellectual dilettante who lacks the patience for hard thinking. Well, the same is true in evolution.


He makes a profound point, that evolutionists dismiss the small-step process of evolution and rather focus on the result. Local maxima are dismissed as simply a lack of imagination.
Posted by at 6:37 PM 0 comments

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 06:32 AM PDT

Beginners Corner: new baby project

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 04:30 AM PDT

Hi! I'm so excited with this project, I want to share it with you all! Fxstreet.com and I started a new section, THE BEGINNERS CORNER. Starting from the ABC of forex, and full of usefull tips, the beginners corner is designed for starters, yet not only for them:you can build your learning with the top highligths of the day, and improve your trading with the most interesting recommendations. 

Also, if you feel lost in forex and on Fxstreet.com, too many words and concepts and images you don't undertsand? Maybe you should start from scratch... and that's why we built this section. ;)

Come and take a look, and let me know what you think! :

 

http://www.fxstreet.com/education/beginners-corner/


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EUR/USD maybe heading for a short term correction

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 03:48 AM PDT
Posted by at 5:41 PM 0 comments

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Meritocracy Undemocratic

Atlas Shrugged seems to be getting the same reception that the 500th anniversary of Columbus discovering America got back in 1992. Timing is important, and currently egalitarianism dominates individualism in the world of ideas. Over at Bloggingheads, Noah Millman articulates the belief that meritocracy is horrible because it is antidemocratic. Millman seems to think that just because merit can't be measured infallibly it should be ignored. Further, he seems to think society is currently 'run' by an elite chosen by some Star Chamber according to some merit metric; I tend to think many leaders are simply popular people who learn how to navigate reverse dominance hierarchies, and these leaders are pretty widely distributed--politicians at many levels, businessmen who compete against each other.

Aristotle noted in his Politics Book 3 that justice is in one sense simple, equality. What makes justice hard politically is, equality of what? I much prefer an imperfect meritocracy to a society where merit is considered meaningless.

Posted by at 6:32 PM 0 comments

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

USD/JPY technical perspective

Posted: 27 Apr 2011 04:39 AM PDT

Another day in paradise

Posted: 27 Apr 2011 04:22 AM PDT

Hi everyone and welcome back! dollar continues falling ahead of FED meeting, with Pound soaring on better than expected GBP readings, and JPY also down as per Moody's negative outlook. Besides and despite the early jumps, now the market will likely calm down and consolidate until US opening. Later volume will probably decrease ahead of FED. Anyway, I believe there is little or nothing, besides a shocking not expected rate hike, Mr. Bernanke can do to change dollar bearish trend.

 

Here is the link for today's calendar:

 

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

 

Have a great trading day!
Posted by at 5:44 PM 0 comments

Housing CPI Bizarre



This picture shows the housing component of inflation (blue line), compared to house price changes (red line). As housing prices went through their bubble, the effect on CPI didn't budge much from 3%, whereas the recent crash brought it down to zero. See Dr.HousingBubble for more.

Things like oil, corn, and gold have skyrocket recently, but I'm told that things like clothing, 'food away from home' and 'shelter' are keeping inflation low. Perhaps. But I'm with Bill Gross, who highlights the gov't dilemma given its true debt-to-GDP ratio is 500%:
Unless entitlements are substantially reformed, I am confident that this country will default on its debt; not in conventional ways, but by picking the pocket of savers via a combination of less observable, yet historically verifiable policies--inflation, currency devaluation and low to negative real interest rates.
Posted by at 6:38 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 26 Apr 2011 06:42 AM PDT

GBP/USD upside limited by short term trend line

Posted: 26 Apr 2011 04:16 AM PDT

While Euro continues rising despite the sovereign jitters, Pound remains quite limited to the upside against the greenback, halting since the weekly opening at a daily descendant trend line coming from past Thursday high around 1.6600. 4 hours chart shows indicators still weak below their midlines, 20 SMA above current price, and the trend line now @ 1.6530. Very close, pair has found resistance also aroudn 1.6550/60 area so unless clearly above this last, little upside is seen in the cross; 1.6610 is next.

Main support lies at 1.6430, previous daily highs, and strong static area. Below this last, bearish momentum should accelerate towards 1.6340 area.

 

 


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Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD

Posted: 26 Apr 2011 03:17 AM PDT

Starting the day

Posted: 26 Apr 2011 02:39 AM PDT

Hi everyone and welcome to this blog! After the holidays, market is finally back on full shape, with the dollar back lower across the board. As we discuss past Asian session opening webinar, there is no interest in the market to buy the greenback. Commodities are back higher, erasing most of yesterday's losses; Europan stocks markets are quite positive, as well as US futures, with EUR/USD approaching 1.4645 past week high; GBP/USD is barely above 1.6500 limited by a short term descendant trend line, currently around 1.6530.

Swiss Franc continues posting record highs against the dollar, with the pair now around  0.8755, while USD/JPY remains steady just above 81.60.

 

Investors are far from concerned about sovereign debt woes in the euro zone, as the common currency rises despite Greek/German 10 year govt bond yield spread widens to new euro-era high of 1205 bps; Switzerland trade balance was also disappointing coming under expectations and previous month readings; but hey! who cares?  How far can the dollar continue falling? Well, maybe tomorrow, with the FOMC decision, we will have a clue. Besides, the FED has introduced changes, as Bernanke is going to ask some questions. Not live, but choosen from already received ones. Could be pretty interesting, althought I still believe that jawbowning is no longer enough: unless a cut in QE or a rise in rates, the greenback will continue to be sell off.

 

Here is the link for today´s calendar:

 

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

 

Have a great trading day!

 
Posted by at 5:33 PM 0 comments
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