Tuesday, September 29, 2009

FX Path

FX Path


AUD/USD - Consolidating within Uptrend

Posted: 29 Sep 2009 08:30 AM PDT

AUD/USD Daily ChartAfter hitting a 13-month high close to the 0.8800 resistance last week, price action on AUD/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has consolidated horizontally just above a key uptrend support line extending from the March lows. This currency pair is still very much entrenched in a clear uptrend, and the directional bias still appears to be to the upside. The key upside resistance level to watch for is the noted 0.8800 resistance. For more technical analysis on this currency pair, please click here for Tuesday’s (9/29/2009) Chart of the Day.

- James Chen, CTA, CMT

* I will be key speaker at FXstreet.com's International Traders Conference in Barcelona, Spain in October 2009 - for more information, please go to: www.traders-conference.com .

* For information on my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.

* Follow my intraday forex updates on Twitter: http://twitter.com/JamesChenFX


Forex Crunch Forex Daily Outlook – September 29th 2009

Forex Crunch Forex Daily Outlook – September 29th 2009


Forex Daily Outlook – September 29th 2009

Posted: 29 Sep 2009 12:30 AM PDT

American CB Consumer Confidence and a lot of British figures dominate the scene today. Will EUR/USD recover from the plunge it made this week? Let’s see what’s up for today.

Note: After a ten day vacation, I’m glad to back, and I’;m catching up what I’ve missed in the forex scene.

Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator scored 0.66, less than last month’s 0.75 points.

In Europe, German Import Prices rose by 1.3%, almost double the expectations of 0.7%. This adds to the rising CPI. Is Europe getting out of deflation? Later in Europe, Consumer Confidence is expected to stay at -21, similar to last month.

In Britain, Current Account is predicted to show a deficit of 7.7 billion, less than last month’s 8.5 billion. Net Lending to Individuals is expected to turn positive, and print 0.3 billion, after it fell last month. Mortgage Approvals are predicted to remain almost unchanged, at 51K.

The more interesting figure is the final GDP, which is predicted to be revised upwards, to a fall of 0.6%, less than the previous read of 0.7%. Some countries have posted growth in the second quarter. Britain is currently behind.

The most important British figure for today is very important: CBI Realized Sales are expected to rise from -16 to -15. Where is GBP/USD going?

And at night, GfK Consumer Confidence is expected to be quite stable and quite negative, at -24.

In the US, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI is expected to show an improving situation in home prices: an annual average of a 14.3% fall is expected, continuing a positive trend.

Later in the US, CB Consumer Confidence is expected to move forward, rising from 54.1 to 57 points, also continuing the positive trend.

In Japan, Prelim Industrial Production usually impacts the Yen. After rising by 2.1%, it’s expected to rise by 1.9% this time.

That’s it for today. After returning from my vacation, I’m back with the regular writing schedule.