Sunday, March 15, 2009

Why We Make Mistakes


There are many books on 'behavioral economics', but Why We Make Mistakes by a journalist is a pretty good summary. Indeed, I was looking at Ariely's Predictably Irrational, and found this book much more succinct. Fun facts from the book:
  • There is a 1 in 1 million chance of finding a gun in an airport check
  • people don't remember names, as opposed to the jobs or families of a person
  • 80% of calls to a corporate help desk are for lost passwords
  • Simply changing pill colors from white to red and black makes them more distinctive
  • People recall their specific grades in school with an upward bias
  • Men report a median of 7 sex partners, women 4
  • 84% of doctors thought others were biased by self interest, whereas only 16% thought they were biased by self interest
  • The most common airplane accident is 'controlled flight into terrain', or flying a plane into the ground
  • When asked to pick a movie viewed later, more choose highbrow movies; choosing movies now we choose lowbrow movies
  • being first on the ballot adds about 3% to a candidates vote
  • As something becomes familiar, the more we tend to notice it less
  • We see things not as they are, but as they ought to be.
  • Experts make mistakes expecting patterns that aren't there.
  • Depressed people are realists, happy people are overconfident
  • People learn more from summaries than from reading entire chapters
  • A horse race handicapper does as well with 5 bits of information as having 10, 20, or 40, though his confidence increases with the number of information bits available
  • Hope impedes adaptation. Someone with a potentially reversible colonostemy is more unhappy after 1 year than someone with a 1 year irreversible colonostemy.
  • When you are trying to make judgments about complex systems, things that are easily observed are overweighted.
  • Money does not improve efficiency of large organizations (ie, giving everyone more money).
  • Money does increase the ability of individuals to withstand discomfort in tests.

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