Forex Daily Outlook, 15th May 2009

Busy day today at forex trading: European GDP, American CPI and TIC Long-Term Purchases are the highlights. But there’s lots more…

At 6:00 GMT, German Prelim GDP is expected to plunge by 3% in the first quarter of 2009. Similar dives have been seen in other economies in the world, and Europe’s biggest economy isn’t different.

45 minutes later, also France will release its Prelim GDP. It’s expected to fall by 1.3%. European Flash GDP will be published only at 9:00 GMT (with Italian GDP), and is expected to fall by 2.1%.

If there won’t be a big surprise here, German GDP will dominate the EUR/USD, since it’s the first figure that is released, and of the biggest economy.

European CPI is predicted to rise by 0.6% (annually adjusted). Core CPI is predicted to rise by 1.6%. Deflation is a threat on Europe…

Also notable in Europe: French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to fall by 0.8%.

In Switzerland, Retail Sales will draw lots of attention: they are expected to turn positive, and rise by 0.4%. The Swiss economy is stable.

Canadian Manufacturing Sales are predicted to rise by 1.2%, after rising by 2.2% last time.

American Consumer Price Index is expected to stay unchanged. Core CPi, which is closely examined by the Federal Reserve, is expected to rise by 0.1%. American prices seem too stable…

TIC Long-Term Purchases, reflecting the flow of money, are expected to stand at 25B. This will also shake the markets.

Also in the US, Capacity Utilization Rate is expected to show a squeeze to 68.9%. Industrial Production is expected to drop, but only by 0.5%.

Last but not least: Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to improve, and rise to 66.8 points. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey is highly regarded.

Have a great weekend!