The Advisor Weblog

U.S. News all better than expected
Eur/Usd technical view
Majors’s sentiment for today
Starting the day

Posted: 15 Sep 2009 05:34 AM PDT

Retail Sales rose to 2.7%, New York Empire State index rose to 18.9 while PPI rose 1.7% all news positive for greenback, and of course first reaction favor risk appetite. Stocks junp to the upside, yen to the downside, and dollar quickly down particulary against commodity currencies. Europeans are rising also, but at a slower pace. Let’s give market 15 minutes to digest the news.

Eur/Usd technical view

Posted: 15 Sep 2009 04:56 AM PDT

Euro remains strong mostly of course, due to market sentiment. However, I have been following the divergences we can see in 4 hours charts between candles and momentum, but the fact is that there are no other signs of exhaustion or correction, and every dip is a chance to buy the pair; holding above 20 SMA in 4 hours charts, that remains bullish, pair has supports for the next hours at the 1.4580 zone, 1.4550 and then 1.4510 area. I really like to see it under 1.4445/60 to call for a stronger fall there, and does not seems likely in the short term. Resistances are at 1.4620, 1.4660 and 1.4720; above this last, pair could quickly approach to 1.4770 before losing momentum.

Daily charts had RSI around 70, and that’s supposed to be read as overbought, yet is a bit tricky in this case: pair has been ranging for so long, that took it only 350 pips to reach such condition, so don’t trust on it really. We do really need to wait for another signs to consider a change in trend, or even a more interesting downside correction.

Majors’s sentiment for today

Posted: 15 Sep 2009 04:24 AM PDT

Here is majors sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Neutral

Gbp/Usd: Bearish

Usd/Chf: Neutral

Usd/Jpy: Sligthly Bullish

Eur/Gbp: Bullish

Starting the day

Posted: 15 Sep 2009 04:14 AM PDT

Hi everybody, and welcome back! Busy morning since early Europe opening, Gbp was the only currency that actually reacted to news. Rest of majors are waiting for U.S. news to be release in about an hour, that I do expect to move the market strongly, as we are talking of U.S. retail sales, among others, and sales and consumption are highly related. Gbp, as I wrote yesterday, remains the second weakest currency across the board, and seems to be even more clear now, that, despite CPI rose, Pound fall on Governor’s King comments.He stated that it isn’t desirable for bank reserves to be too high, and the Bank of England is still considering a reduction in the bank’s deposit rate to discourage banks from hoarding reserves. Pound broke under 1.6520 level, so I expect a test of the 1.6440 zone. Will depend on what sentiment has for us today. Gold remains strong fighting the $ 1000/oz level, hovering around there, seems a hard battle between buyers and sellers, and at this point seems buyers are about to win, but that’s just an idea. Let’s see if the commodity could clearly fall under 982, or rise above 1013 those are the levels to watch there, that will no doubts weight on dollar’s destiny. With Euro back above 1.4600 and yen above 91.00 after yesterday’s Tango’s comments, we need U.S. reports and Wall Street opening to see where the trend will be the rest of the day. Here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!