The Advisor Weblog

Dollar unchanged
Usd/Jpy approaching to key point
S&P Weekly charts
Eur/Usd, daily chart
Majors’s sentiment for today
Starting the day

Posted: 17 Sep 2009 09:35 AM PDT

What happened

Nothing changed in the forex market: gold and stocks keep printing yearly highs on daily basis, and dollar continues falling to yearly lows against most rivals. Sentiment and speculation keep driving market, and just as an example, Swiss Franc break under 1.0300 and quotes around 1.0280, the same day the SNB stated they will continue to act decisively to prevent any strengthening in the franc versus the euro, and pair lost more than 80 pips from the day high, ready to close a quite bearish daily candle.
Majors trend remain in place, with Euro clearly above 1.4720 previous strong resistance, now support zone. Falls under that level, had been took as buying chances only to keep sending the pair higher.
GBP remains the second weakest currency across the board, after monetary policy committee member Sentance says that in the next few months the BOE will need to decide whether to add to quantitative ease. Pound failed to regain the key 1.6520 area, and remains hovering around 1.6480 level.
USD/JPY rose to 91.60 before retreating, failing to break the roof of a 4 hours descendant channel coming from the 97.78 highs. Channel roof actually lies at 91.60 zone, so pair needs to close the day above it, to had some bullish chances. 4 hours charts has lost bullish momentum seen these last days, yet pair remains above 20 SMA that has been capping the downside.
Better than expected U.S. data send stocks to past October 2008 highs, despite market was expecting to have a falling September. Rallies in fact, had surpassed the 61.8% retracement of last 3 years falls. Weekly close at current level, will suggest further gains both for S&P and DJIA.
What to expect

With majors overbought, a dollar upside corrective movement should not take long. Length of that movement, will be key to confirm if current trend will remain valid for the months to come.
Levels to watch, for corrective movements, are as follows:
EUR/USD 1.4660
GBP/USD 1.6370
USD/CHF 1.0440
USD/JPY 91.70
AUD/USD 0.8650
USD/CAD 1.0675

Trend changes seem too far away to even mention them. If majors approach to those zones, I will add the longer term ones. Also, gold should break, not even 1000, but 982 level, to help dollar in a recovery attempt, and does not seem it would happen in the short term.

Usd/Jpy approaching to key point

Posted: 17 Sep 2009 04:53 AM PDT

I really have no “hopes” on a bullish recovery in this pair, yet…. we are technical analyst right? anyway, 4 hours charts indicators are strongly bullish, while current candle break above 20 SMA that is gaining some bullish slope. Approaching to the roof of the descendant channel coming form the 97.78 highs reached past month after U.S. Payrolls, candle opening above 91.70 will confirm further rises in the pair. Height of the channel is of around 180 pips, that means objective for the movement could well be around 93.50. Resistances today come at 91.70, 92.10 and 92.50 area, while supports lie at 91.10, 90.65 and the 90.20 zone.

S&P Weekly charts

Posted: 17 Sep 2009 04:29 AM PDT

Some charts, don’t need too much explanation: S&P in the weekly, is breaking above the 61..8% Fibonacci retracement of the last fall. Weekly close above that 1060 level, could confirm further rises in indexes, despite September is usually consider a negative month.

Eur/Usd, daily chart

Posted: 17 Sep 2009 04:21 AM PDT

I was taking a look at Euro daily chart, that remains inside an ascendant channel. RSI is at 72, meaning a bit overbought yet a bit tricky, because the pair has been moving sideways so long that only took 500 pips to reach this state. Far from the end of the day, current candle remains inside the channel, and seems to be forming a reversal pattern, a major top there. 20 SMA remains strongly bullish, while momentum has nothing to tell us.Pay attention to today’s close!

From current price, consider resistances at 1.4720 1.4770 and 1.4830. Supports today come at 1.4680, 1.4650 and 1.4620.

Majors’s sentiment for today

Posted: 17 Sep 2009 03:47 AM PDT

Here is majors sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bullish

Gbp/Usd: Slightly Bullish

Usd/Chf: Bearish

Usd/Jpy: Sligthly Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Bullish

Starting the day

Posted: 17 Sep 2009 03:36 AM PDT

Hi everybody, welcome back. Not much change in market to report: gold keeps rising, dollar keeps falling, and printing daily fresh yearly lows against major rivals except for Gbp, that remains weak compared to the rest of the majors. And macro data don’t help it no doubts: retail sales come at 0.00 this month, while a minor production report came out better than expected, still far from positive. Stocks in the U.S. are quite strong also, breaking key Fibo levels, I will place in another post. Keep wondering what will change the inverse correlation we are seeing between indexes and greenback and when, but well, we will notice not doubts. Anyway, here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!