Friday, September 11, 2009

Forex Crunch Forex Daily Outlook – September 11th 2009

Forex Crunch Forex Daily Outlook – September 11th 2009

Forex Daily Outlook – September 11th 2009

Posted: 11 Sep 2009 12:16 AM PDT

The dollar weakness continued during the Asian session and sent EUR/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD to new highs. USD/JPY is at new lows. Will the greenback close the week so low? Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment and other indicators will move the markets today. Let’s see what’s up for the last day of the week.

German WPI (Wholesale Price Index) surprised with a surge in prices – a 0.7% instead of 0.3%. Together with rising CPI, could Germany start to get out of deflation?

In Britain, PPI Input will show the current inflation situation. It’s expected to rise by 0.9% after dropping by 1.4% last time. After I wrote yesterday that the Pound is still behind, it did manage to ride the dollar’s weakness and clim above 1.6660, reaching 1.6740.

In Canada, NHPI (New House Price Index) is expected to fall by 0.1%, similar to last month’s 0.2% drop. USD/CAD is close to the important 1.08 line.

In the US, Import Prices are expected to rise by 1% after falling last time. Later, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to rise back to 67.2 from 65.7, showing that American consumers feel better.

Very late in the afternoon, the Federal Budget Balance is released. The deficit in the budget is expected to decline from 180 to 155 billion.

That’s it for today and for this week. Happy forex trading!

Pound Still Behind – Bounces Off Resistance

Posted: 10 Sep 2009 07:09 AM PDT

The British Pound doesn’t “use” the dollar weakness to reach new ground. 1.6660 is one of the strongest resistance lines seen in a long time.  The rate statement didn’t include the spice to send the Pound higher.

GBP/USD now trades at 1.6598 after making a trip to 1.6659 and back. Also NZD/USD made a similar round trip. The resistance line is amazing in its strength. While the EUR/USD, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and NZD/USD are in new ground, enjoying the dollar’s weakness, the Pound reached the resistance line just today. And it bounced.

1.6660 served as a resistance line many times in the past. It was created on October 30th 2008 when is was a swing peak. It was tested over and over in recent months. For one week in August, GBP/USD traded above this line. But after it fell back down, 1.6660 preserved its status.

Mervyn King and the other BoE members released a rather calm rate statement. Apart from leaving the interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, the historic low, also the Quantitative Easing program remain unchanged at 175 billion.

After they surprised last time with an expansion of the QE program, this statement had no surprises. The Pound initially enjoyed a rally that took it over 100 pips higher, until it reached the resistance line. There, no energy was left for it.

The US dollar has a really bad weak. The first wave of dollar weakness was followed by a second wave. EUR/USD finally broke out of range. In those posts I wrote that the Pound was left behind. Also today, when GBP/USD already got close, it didn’t break the super strong resistance.

Here’s Mohammed Isah’s GBP/USD updated analysis.

Will the Pound make a breakout later?
Posted by at 5:11 AM

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)