The Advisor Weblog

Dollar down as gold regains $ 1000/oz
Are you watching?
Payrolls Numbers
Eur and Gbp levels to watch
Majors’s sentiment for today
Starting the day

Posted: 02 Oct 2009 06:41 AM PDT

Despite market spikes, and stocks and fundamentals, gold remains market leader. We are back above $ 1000/oz, and dollar is down across the board, far from definitions except against JPY that seems ready to extend the downside against dollar. Gold remains the key as long as above 980 area, seems we have no chances to see dollar gaining ground, not even with strong risk aversion triggers.

Are you watching?

Posted: 02 Oct 2009 05:55 AM PDT

Stocks move down, U.S. futures, and European stocks, yet gold seems unable to move lower. Gold rebound to the upside, dollar to the downside. However, seems the week end will favor greenback, and yen. USD/JPY level lo watch is 88.70. Under that level, 88.20 lows, ahead of 87.60 area and 87.20 year lows.

Payrolls Numbers

Posted: 02 Oct 2009 05:31 AM PDT

Employment Change come out at-263 K against - 179K expected and -216K previous month. Unemployment rate, print a 9.8% as expected against9.7% previous month.

First reaction is as comment earlier stocks down dollar up. Let’s see how things develop in the next 15 minutes!

Eur and Gbp levels to watch

Posted: 02 Oct 2009 04:55 AM PDT

Regarding EUR/USD key point to watch to the downside, will be the 1.4440/50 zone; we have there, the 61.8% retracement of the last daily up leg, and a couple of daily maximums, roof of previous months range. Seems under that level, we will go to the downside. To the upside, 1.4660/80 is the zone to beat, to see the pair regaining bullish trend; above 1.4600 seems likely we are approaching to that zone. Retreat from that level, will mean no upside strength, and weekly close either above or under mentioned zones, could define trend for the days to come.

Regarding GBP, what to say? I can only see there bearish pressure; key level to watch to the downside is 1.5750/70, lots of daily and monthly, highs and lows. Confirmations under that level, could kick start a mayor fall in GBP/USD. To the upside, first resistance lie around 1.5920, but I can call for a trend chance only above the far far away zone of 1.6060, better 1.6110.

As always, wait one 15 minutes candle after payroll, to decide and entry, avoid first spikes, and keep an eye on U.S. stocks and gold.

Majors’s sentiment for today

Posted: 02 Oct 2009 04:22 AM PDT

Here is majors sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Neutral

Gbp/Usd: Bearish

Usd/Chf: Neutral

Usd/Jpy: Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Bullish

Starting the day

Posted: 02 Oct 2009 04:20 AM PDT

Hi everybody and welcome back! As we comment last night, market remains slightly dollar bullish, yet ranging ahead of U.S. employment data. Market forecast less job lost, but a higher unemployment rate of 9.8%; at this point, we know that there is a small chance to see dollar reacting straight to the report. Better chances of a contrarian reaction in forex market, as report will directly strike stocks; Higher stocks will mean lower dollar, while lower stocks will trigger risk aversion and be translated into dollar and yen strength. We should not also forget to take a look at gold; the commodity is also leading currencies, and a break there under 980 area, could also mean dollar strength. I will post the key level to watch for each major. Meanwhile, here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!