Saturday, October 3, 2009

Forex Crunch Forex Weekly Outlook – October 5-9 2009

Forex Crunch Forex Weekly Outlook – October 5-9 2009

Forex Weekly Outlook – October 5-9 2009

Posted: 03 Oct 2009 03:29 AM PDT

This week’s major events are rate decisions in Britain, Europe and Australia, employment figures and trade balance releases in many countries. After a week full with American releases, the limelight moves away from the US. There are lots of major releases worldwide. Let’s see the menu:

Monday, October 5th: Australian ANZ Job Advertisements starts the week quite early. In New Zealand, the NZIER Business Confidence is published late in the day.

In Britain, Services PMI is expected to remain rise slightly. Will this help the Pound? Also in Britain, Halifax HPI will be published during the week, and is expected to show another rise in home prices.

European Retail Sales are predicted to decline once again, this time by 0.3%. EUR/USD is quite stable.

In the US, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is predicted to climb above 50 points for the first time in a year. A score above 50 means economic expansion.

Tuesday, October 6th: Australia starts the day again, this time with a bang. Trade Balance is predicted to show a squeezing deficit. Soon afterwards, the RBA will decide upon a new Case Rate. Australia’s high 3% interest rate isn’t expected to change. Future intentions might be hinted in the RBA Rate Statement.

In Britain, Manufacturing Production is expected to rise by 0.4%, following last month’s rise. The monthly NIESR GDP Estimate is expected to show more growth in September, preparing us for the Q3 GDP release later in the month.

In Canada, Building Permits are expected to recover from last month’s drop of 11.4%. Another important Canadian release Ivey PMI, which rose nicely last month. Will USD/CAD get back down?

Wednesday, October 7th: Australian Home Loans are expected to drop by 0.4%, after the disappointing fall last month.

In Europe, Final GDP for the second quarter is expected to confirm the 0.1% drop last month. German Factory Orders are expected to continue rising, but at a more moderate pace of 1.2% this time.

Thursday, October 8th: Australian Employment figures dominate the day. Employment Change is expected to be negative once again, with an anticipated fall of 9.7K jobs, less than last time. The Unemployment Rate is predicted to rise to 6%. In previous releases, the results was better than the expectations.

In Britain, the rock bottom interest rate isn’t expected to move from 0.5%. Mervyn King is dealing with a suffering economy, and isn’t expected to raise the Official Bank Rate. The focus is on the Quantitative Easing program. After expanding it dramatically two months ago to 175 billion, the bond buying scheme (also known as Asset Purchase Facility) gets a lot of attention. The MPC Rate Statement is also interesting to follow.

Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged, at 1%. The European economies seem to get by quite well. Will the ECB mention the deflation situation and future rate moves? We’ll get answers at the ECB Press Conference.

Following the Non-Farm Payrolls for September, the weekly Unemployment Claims will be interesting to watch. They are expected to drop slightly to 542K. Ben Bernanke will be speaking late at night, and will focus on the balance sheet, or the dollar printing program if you wish.

Friday, October 9th: British PPI Input is expected to drop, after rising neatly last month. The Trade Balance is expected to be almost unchanged. These conclude a long week for the Pound.

In Canada, Employment Change is expected to be positive once again, with a rise of 10,000 jobs this time. On the other hand, the Unemployment Rate is predicted to edge up from 8.7% to 8.8%.

American and Canadian Trade Balance are published at the same time, and are expected to remain stable – the American figure is expected to remain at around 32 billion, while the Canadian number is predicted to be almost 0.

The last major figure of the week also comes from Canada: the BOC Business Outlook Survey is expected to give a broad view of the Canadian economy.

That’s it for the major events of this week. Specific currency coverages, which include a detailed dive into the indicators and a technical analysis will be published later on. I’ll be covering the British Pound, the Euro and the Australian and Canadian dollars.

Have a great week!

Forex Links for the Weekend

Posted: 03 Oct 2009 12:42 AM PDT

Here’s a list of interesting forex-related articles from chosen blogs / sites. All the articles have a scope of more than a single day’s trading:

  • Adam Kritzer discusses the dollar’s weakness and focuses on the low interest rates. He also writes about the prospects for a renewed strengthening of the greenback.
  • Jum Hunt, on Forex Magnates, reports that the popular Forex MegaDroid finally understands FIFO. The new NFA regulations, which are in effect for over two months, are still a big issue.
  • Mark Thomas, on Casey Stubbs’ site, talks about forex profits through positive thinking. Psychology is a big part of the game.
  • Jay Norris talks about the fine line between a correction and a loss. This is one of the things that differentiate new and seasoned traders.
  • Larry Greenberg summarizes the week in an interesting way. He notes the changing environment from the current dollar=safe haven attitude.
  • Wade Hansen, of Learning Markets, writes that the dollar is the big loser of this week, and marks the Yen as next week’s loser.
  • Again in Forex Magnates, but this time it’s mine – I wrote a guest post about which currency pairs to trade.

There’s so much going on in the market – so much news. I think that in the weekend we should sit back and read material with a larger scope.

Have a great weekend!
Posted by at 5:36 AM

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