Tuesday, November 10, 2009

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Dow Jones, gold and oil

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 06:52 AM PST

Dow Jones is at a fresh yearly high  while gold continues around $ 1100/oz and oil at $ 80 a barrel. Same old situation, dollar is back under pressure, with commodity currencies leading the way. At least EUR/JPY reached the proposed target of 134.20 before giving up. Expect further dollar and yen loses as long as stocks keep running higher.

Majors’s hourly perspective pre American session

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 05:41 AM PST

Gbp/Usd at 20 SMA

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 04:53 AM PST

Gbp/Usd is fighting the 20  SMA in the 4 hours charts, that usually acts as strong dynamic support/resistance level. In this case, is giving hte pair support, while CCI has rebounded in the 0.00 line, and turned to the upside, suggesting support zone at 1.6640/60 area won’t be easy to break. We need to see a clear acceleration there, to see the pair reaching the 1.6600 area, next support for today, followed by 1.6550 area. To the upside, resistances come at 1.6700, 1.6735 and 1.6780.

 

Best pair to trade now: EUR/JPY

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 04:31 AM PST

Will optimism give way to realism?

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 03:58 AM PST

I don’t think any time soon, no. However, reading news around the world, come to my attention earlier today Fitch ratings for Japan and the U.K. Searching the net, i found out that “Fitch Ratings is a global rating agency committed to providing the world’s credit markets with independent and prospective credit opinions, research, and data. With 50 offices worldwide, Fitch Ratings’ global expertise, built on a foundation of local market experience, spans across capital markets in over 150 countries. Fitch Ratings is widely recognized by investors, issuers, and bankers for its credible, transparent, and timely coverage.”

Fitch Ratings warned Japan on Tuesday to keep to its borrowing target or risk a credit rating downgrade as the finance minister acknowledged the problem and tried to reassure rattled investors by saying spending had to be cut. Japanese sovereign credit default swaps spreads have nearly doubled in the past week as investors fretted that the government faces a funding crunch over its ballooning public debt, which the IMF says will spiral to 227% of GDP next year.  

Fitch  Ratings also said that the U.K.’s sovereign credit rating is most at risk among top-rated nations, saying that Britain needs “the largest budget adjustment” among countries rated AAA. And after today’s Trade Balance data, seems Pound at 1.70 is not what we can expect.

However, we know this news take a long time to be actually reflected in price behavior. Dollar remains week, and likely to keep falling across the board. But don’t talk to me about optimism and recovery for the 2010. I’m sensing we are about to get into an even harder year for the world economic recovery; and reality will slap more faces than we can imagine.

 

Fxstreet.com keeps growing

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 03:19 AM PST

Fxstreet.com keeps growing, and has just launched a new site in Russian! Congratulations to the Fxstreet.com team that keeps working so hard to give always the best to traders around the world!

http://www.fxstreet.net/

Eur/Usd technical perspective

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 03:17 AM PST

Taking a look at 4 hours charts, take a look at the last two candles: long down shadows, and  closing to the upside: that usually means buyers take there chances in any deep, keeping the pair above the 1.5000 level. Slightly over bought, pair has no signs of a downside correction, as moving averages keep signaling an upside trend. With flat momentum, pair needs to overcome 1.5020 maximum zone to retest the yearly high of 1.5062, and if this last is broken consider 1.5110 area as next target for the pair. supports today come at 1.4950, 1.4910 and finally the 1.4860 area.

 

Majors’s sentiment for today

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 02:51 AM PST

Here is majors’s sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bullish

Gbp/Usd: Slightly Bullish

Usd/Chf: Bearish

Usd/Jpy: Slightly Bullish

Eur/Gbp: Neutral

Starting the day

Posted: 10 Nov 2009 02:47 AM PST

Hi everybody, and welcome to this new day in forex market. Monday has been another bearish day for greenback, not strange after the 10.2% unemployment rate from past Friday. With Gold and Oil extending the upside rallies against dollar are the name of the game, with Pound having reached the 1.6840 level past Monday, to retrieve to current 1.6700 zone. I don’t see more clear definitions than what I saw last week, and the other, and the other: risk appetite remains supporting high yielding currencies, stocks and commodities; who is investing like this? The banks: consumption don’t grow, people don’t spent on trouble times,don’t ask for loans, so where is all the money government is printing? In the banks. And what are banks doing with that money? “investing”. We are not already out of one bubble, and entering in the next one, but well, that’s life; humans are the only animals, that trip over the same stone twice. Anyway! I will start with the technicals for today, while you take a look at today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!
Posted by at 6:03 PM

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