Thursday, November 19, 2009

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

U.S. Stocks strongly down

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 06:54 AM PST

Wall Street is falling strongly,pushing particularly commodity currencies to the upside; gold is also falling giving further support to greenback. Let’s see if majors manage to break above/under current lows/highs. That should accelerate dollar recovery. As usual, commodity currencies lead the way.

Majors’ Hourly perspective for U.S. session

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 06:24 AM PST

Japanese Yen breaks higher

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 06:03 AM PST

Japanese Yen is breaking higher agaisnt major rivals, despite unemployment claims in the U.S. save the day and halt the stocks fall printing a 505K reading for the last week;

USD/JPY trades at 88.70, with next key resistance level to watch at 88.20, while EUR/JPY approaches to intradat low of 131.80. Still EUR/JPY has less chances to extend to 131.20, before a pullback as hourly charts look extremely oversold.

Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 04:54 AM PST

Eur/Usd approaching to key support zone

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 04:23 AM PST

Eur/Usd is near  the daily low, yet has quite a support zone at 1.4810/20 area, also 200 EMA in this 4 hours charts, that should halt this rally and offer some upside rebound; however, due to bearish indicators, and stocks and gold still falling, the rebound likely to be short lived, under the pair recovers the 1.4880 area; an acceleration under mentioned support, likely to send the pair to the 1.4740 strong support zone, also a daily ascendant trend line; watch that level, as daily close under it, could accelerate the fall to the 1.4610 area, neck of the double roof, and 61.8% retracement of the last monthly fall. Resistances above 1.4880, lie at 1.4910, and 1.4950 area.

 

Gbp/Usd long and short term

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 03:30 AM PST

Here is the weekly GBP/USD chart. I’m always asked about why i watch Fibonacci retracements in such big charts, and the fact is that I just pay attention to that levels, when we are close to them, like in this case, and wait for the weekly close, to see if i can define next week upcoming trend. Anyway, pair has failed above the 50% of the rally back in August, and despite a spike above it, seems we are going to fail again (we need the week close to be sure of that). As far from the Fibo we close the week, less chances will have pound to regain upside strength; even, seems we are making a double roof also here, something far from being complete as neck line lies at the 1.5730/60 strong area. Anyway, i will be following it with patient. Weekly close clearly above 1.6840, will likely signal further rises with 1.7000 as a main and first target.

 

Turning to smaller time frames, pair is around 1.6640/60 that probe strong in the past, yet indicators point for further falls ahead. next support comes at the 1.6585/1.6600 area, while under this last, 1.6520 will be next and key support to consider: daily close under that level, will signal further falls for next week. Being a bit oversold in smaller time frames, an upside correction will find resistances at 1.6690/1.6700, followed by strong 1.6740 that should cap the upside.

 

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 03:03 AM PST

Here is majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Slightly Bearish

Gbp/Usd: Bearish

Usd/Chf:  Bullish

Usd/Jpy: Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Neutral

Starting the day

Posted: 19 Nov 2009 03:02 AM PST

Hi everybody and welcome back! One day off and things are not quite the same in market: despite gold reached 1153 past Wednesday, EUR/USD failed again to break above 1.5000, a level that refuses to give up since past Thursday. Pound Also retreat from the 1.6840 area,   50% of the monthly fall (I will place my big charts later today). Both stocks and gold retreat strongly today, favoring some dollar  winnings, still nothing really important, more likely corrective, as we remain in past week trading range. Market is waiting for another big trigger to define further trends, and i don’t see anyone for this week, at least from the fundamental side. Maybe  gold recovering the highs and attempting a fresh one, won’t be so strong dollar bearish trigger, as gold breaking under 1080 will be favoring greenback. Let’s see the charts, and try to find some clues! Here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!
Posted by at 5:52 PM

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