Monday, December 7, 2009

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Market after Bernanke

Posted: 07 Dec 2009 10:02 AM PST

Dovish speech from FED President Ben Bernanke, has turned market upside down: gold jumped almost  $ 17 in the last hour, quoting above $ 1160/oz. With no actual easing policy at sight, and a very shy recovery perspective, despite last Friday’s employment numbers, dollar fell across the board hitting 1.4880 against Euro, and 89.10 against Japanese yen. Pound reached the 1.4660 expected resistance level and keeps pushing higher, while commodity currencies are also recovering strongly.

Dollar destiny remains quite attached to gold one, so watch the 1173 resistance level: break above will took as back to pre Payroll trend.

Gold, stocks and currencies

Posted: 07 Dec 2009 07:01 AM PST

Wall Street opening has bring some dollar weakness across the board. Stocks are strongly up, while gold is also recovering some ground, currently at 1145/oz. Past Friday, the correlation was interrupted so today’s movements will be key: if stocks manage to rise while dollar remains around current levels, without running strongly down on “risk appetite” mode, chances of further dollar recovery will be stronger. Also, gold has been a stronger market driver than stocks lately, so if gold keeps losing momentum, we could see more dollar gains despite rising stocks. Let’s see how correlations end this week; for me it will be key.

Best pair to trade now:GBP/USD

Posted: 07 Dec 2009 05:20 AM PST

Here is my choice for today: Pound has the clearer zone to trade. Enjoy!

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2009-12-07.html

Gbp/Usd falling strongly

Posted: 07 Dec 2009 04:33 AM PST

Pound also lost ground, yet remains quite close to the daily low, suggesting more downside to come during next hours. Barely above 1.6310 support zone, an acceleration under that level should send the pair to 1.6250/60. We have no much support under mentioned 1.6250/60 area, so pair likely extend the fall from there, close to 1.6200. Resistances for next hours lie at 1.6380, 1.6430 and 1.6460/80 zone.

 

Eur/Usd technical perspective

Posted: 07 Dec 2009 04:26 AM PST

4 hours charts shows several interesting things in this pair: first, we have broke the daily ascendant trend line coming from March lows past Friday, and pair has attempted a pullback both to the line, and to the 200 EMA, staying short under them. Indicators show extreme over sold conditions have been corrected, while the pair remains under 1.4800. Support around 1.4760 has capped the downside, so a clear break under today’s low could accelerate the fall, with next supports at 1.4720 and 1.4680 area. Resistances from current zone lie at 1.4820 1.4860 and 1.4900.

 

In the daily chart, I’m keeping an eye on the 1.4610 level: past month Payrolls’ low, also 61.8% retracement of the monthly fall 1.6038/1.2330; a weekly close under that level, should confirm the reversal in the pair. A daily close above 1.4930, will deny such perspective.

  

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 07 Dec 2009 03:56 AM PST

Here is majors' sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bearish

Gbp/Usd: Bearish

Usd/Chf: Bullish

Usd/Jpy: Neutral

Eur/Gbp: Slightly Bullish

Starting the day

Posted: 07 Dec 2009 03:54 AM PST

Hi everyone, and welcome back. Dollar keeps rising across the board, as gold prices keep falling: the metal quotes around  $ 1145/oz far from past week high of $ 1226. Still not confirming a trend change, European and commodity majors are approaching to key midterm levels, that I will be posting today with each cross. But as commented last Friday before the data, if there was a report able to change correlation between greenback and stocks, was this. The fact is that the invert correlation dollar had with indexes almost all this year, has changed past Friday, still we can not talk of a complete change in it. We will need a couple of weeks of such relationship to confirm the change. Let’s see how this week develops. Anyway, here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!
Posted by at 6:45 PM

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