Wednesday, December 9, 2009

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

New Zealand left rates unchanged

Posted: 09 Dec 2009 01:51 PM PST

New Zealand rates were left unchanged as expected, yet statement have been more hawkish than expected, triggering NZD strongly up. Part of that statement, included that “If the economy continues to recover, conditions may support beginning to remove monetary stimulus around the middle of 2010. Recent tightening in financial conditions, driven by a higher exchange rate, increased long-term interest rates and a wider gap between the OCR and bank funding costs, reduces the need for more immediate action.” As market remains quite sensitive to stimulus removal comments,  NZD/USD jumped to the upside, reaching the 0.7210 level before slightly retreating back. 4 hours indicators show pair regains some upside momentum detaching, at least temporarily, from its partner AUD. Rally seems a bit overextended in the hourly charts, so consider some likely  downside corrective movements will find support at 0.7160, 0.7125 (20 SMA in 4 hours charts) and the 0.7100 area;resistances, if pair manages to confirm above 0.7120 level, lie at 0.7250, 200 EMA in the 4 hours charts, and above, 0.7290 area.

 

Majors’ hourly perspective pre U.S. opening

Posted: 09 Dec 2009 06:20 AM PST

Here is the majors’ hourly perspective for next session, with charts and technical points:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2009-12-09.v02.html

Best pair to trade now:GBP/USD

Posted: 09 Dec 2009 04:49 AM PST

Here is my choice for today. Hope it works faster than yesterday’s yen!

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2009-12-09.html

USD/CAD technical view

Posted: 09 Dec 2009 03:40 AM PST

Canada is the seventh oil producer of the world, that’s why Canadian dollar is so closely attached to oil movements. and precisely because of that, with oil in a quite tight range between 70/80 bucks a barrel, is why USD/CAD also remains range bound. I have warned several times in webinars and I believe in here, that two main Central banks, Canada, and New Zealand are expresing worries about having a strong currency that deteriorates their economic recovery. So yesterday’s dovish speech and rates hold was not a surprise. As long as oil remains in range, Canadian dollar likley to remain more attached to market sentiment/gold/risk than oil itself.

Anyway, 4 hours charts show pair fighting the 1.0600 area, and slightly bearish; immediate support comes at the 1.0550/60 area, ahead of 1.0500, while above 1.0620 pair has next resistance level at the 1.0670/80 area. Midterm key level to watch for me, lies at the 1.0770 area. Pair could regain some upside strength above there, and approach to the 1.1000 area. At this point, 1.0400 level is the key support to watch: if we lost that level, pair could turn bearish in the term. 

Gold where to?

Posted: 09 Dec 2009 02:20 AM PST

You know  I’m mostly a Forextrader, and a studier of the behavior of major pairs. I have studied during years that behavior, and I started watching more seriously gold charts just a few months ago. I found out that technical indicators are not the best tool to apply here at least not for me, but gold works pretty fine with Fibonacci (that’s a tip from our old friend CVJ that has traded gold for long. Tks CVJ!) Anyway, gold has been retreating to Fibonacci levels after each rise, and this time is no exception: downside rally reached exactly the 50% retracement of the last daily upside leg, and we are going slowly to the upside with 1150 level as immediate resistance to watch, as it represents the 38.2% of that rally. If gold regains that level, we are probably going to see further strength in the metal. 1102 and 1070 are key supports to watch if we break under today’s low.

 

 

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 09 Dec 2009 01:59 AM PST

Here is majors' sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bearish

Gbp/Usd: Bearish

Usd/Chf: Bullish

Usd/Jpy: Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Neutral

Starting the day

Posted: 09 Dec 2009 01:58 AM PST

Hi everyone and welcome back! Risk aversion rally extended during first Asian hours, yet as comment on the daily Wrap up Webinar last night, dollar was a bit overextended and corrections started in current European session. European stocks are down, yet U.S. futures as well as gold are slightly positive on the day, favoring the corrective movement. Both Pound and Yen accomplished the mentioned rallies, as GBP/USD sunk to 1.6160 level, while Japanese Yen finally break yesterday’s low and accelerate to the downside. U.K. Trade balance worst than expected, should keep GBP/USD capped to the upside now. EUR/USD recovery stalled at past weekly low, just around 1.4760 area, so now, we are in those points where majors should tell us either if they will regain past day’s trend, or if this downside dollar corrective movement will extend. As we continued to be driven by gold, I will post a chart and some toughs of it after the Majors’ sentiment for today. Anyway, we have some interesting news today, mostly in England and late U.S. session, New Zealand rates. Will also add a bit about it. Here is the link for today’s calendar:

 http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!
Posted by at 6:05 PM

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