Thursday, December 10, 2009

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Gold technical perspective

Posted: 10 Dec 2009 07:52 AM PST

Emmanuel asked about gold, and as I told you, I found out Fibonacci is the best tool I have there. Take a look at this 4 hours charts: the metal is fighting around the 50% retracement of last daily rally, so today close will under that 1126 level or even better, closer to 1120, will suggest further falls to the 1102 area, 61.8% of the same rally. I read also some rumors, about India and China central banks ready to buy between 1050/1080 so pay attention to that levels also. Anyway, are just rumors. To the upside, first resistance lies around 1136, followed by the 1150 area, 38.2% of the same rally. Above that level, expect more appreciations in gold.

 

Majors’ hourly perspective pre U.S. opening

Posted: 10 Dec 2009 06:26 AM PST

Here is the hourly perspective for majors, charts included. Market players are quite reluctant today right? No clear definitions, nor strong breaks, no risk appetite despite rising stocks reflected in currencies.

Anyway, here is the link for today:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2009-12-10.html

U.S. data triggered risk appetite

Posted: 10 Dec 2009 05:37 AM PST

Better than expected U.S. Trade Balance showing a smaller deficit of just 32.9Billions, has triggered some risk appetite across markets: stocks and gold jumped to the upside, and so, dollar to the downside. EUR/USD is approaching to the daily high of 1.4760, while USD/CHF tested the 1.0240 support zone. GBP/USD remains hovering around 1.6300. Only 5 minutes after the news, let’s give the market 15 minutes to see if this spike could last.

Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD

Posted: 10 Dec 2009 05:19 AM PST

GBP/USD daily H&S

Posted: 10 Dec 2009 04:56 AM PST

After Live coverage, none much happened with Pound: almost no reaction to the expected unchanged policy announcement. Anyway, I see a H&S formations there, thanks to a webinar attendant a couple of day’s ago, and here it is for you all to see. We usually say, that this formation is a trend change formation that works better at the end of a bullish trend. In this particular case, the formation is after a long consolidation period after that bullish trend. Not the most clear one, still I see it quite valid. Look for a daily close and a strong break under 1.6250 to confirm the figure.

 

Pound rising pre BOE

Posted: 10 Dec 2009 03:34 AM PST

Gbp is rising ahead of BOE announcement, but unless the Central Bank decide to make a surprise change in their QE or rate, quite unlikely at this point, seems we are not going to see to much reactions to the news, but remain moving on gold, stocks and sentiment.

GBP/USD quotes around 1.6340, with a slightly bullish perspective in 4 hours charts. Above 1.6380, pair should extend the rally with 1.6420 and 1.6460 as immediate resistances. Under 1.6300, pair will be back under pressure, with next supports at 1.6250 area, 1.6200 and the weekly low around 1.6165.

 

EUR/USD: greenback consolidating gains

Posted: 10 Dec 2009 03:25 AM PST

I take a look at the EUR/USD chart, and I can only see more bearish pressure there, despite we have not yet a technical confirmation of the continuation. Still, this 4 hours charts show us pair has entered a consolidation stage, with greenback holding on its gains. I have a small continuation triangle there, with 20 SMA strongly bearish above current price and flat indicators. Pair needs to clearly break that strong congestion support zone between 1.4680/1.4700 to extend the downside. Next supports lie at 1.4620 and ahead 1.4580. On the contrary, only above 1.4780 I see chances of further upside strength, with next resistances at 1.4830 and 1.4860.

Keep an eye on gold, is at 1122, very close to yesterday’s low of 1116.

 

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 10 Dec 2009 02:53 AM PST

Here is majors' sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Neutral

Gbp/Usd: Slightly Bullish

Usd/Chf: Neutral

Usd/Jpy: Slightly Bullish

Eur/Gbp: Neutral

Starting the day

Posted: 10 Dec 2009 02:49 AM PST

Hi everyone and welcome back! no much action after New Zealand rates during Asian session, as majors mostly consolidate in small ranges since past American session close. i was thinking that after Wall Street end positive, and NZD start that strong recovery, we were going to see some risk appetite across the board, but never happened. Nikkei 225 ended negative, gold continues falling breaking under the 50% retracement we saw yesterday, still quite close and with no confirmations of a break. Pound should again be our center of attention, as we have the BOE monetary policy in an hour (I will be covering it live at Fxstreet.com home page). So, let’s take a look at some key levels before the event. Here is the link for today's calendar:

 http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!
Posted by at 6:05 PM

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