Friday, January 8, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

After Payrolls

Posted: 08 Jan 2010 07:22 AM PST

Way disappointing data, and my fears come true. We have seen a “sell the rumor by the news” movement pre data. And as commented, Canada negative data “advanced” U.S. also negative one.Of course nothing is 100% sure in this market, but sometimes things have a point. Anyway, and amazingly, dollaris back almost at pre- report levels against most majors, as U.S. stocks are down as well as gold. Daily candles are showing little change from the opening, yet with dollar losing some ground. Pound is back under 1.6000, Euro approaching to 1.4300 and USD/JPY back above 93.00. Let me take a general look at what’s going on, around the work and I will be back with a week conclusion.

Hourly perspective for majors’

Posted: 08 Jan 2010 05:05 AM PST

I updated the hourly perspective earlier today, as I will be starting covering Live! Payrolls data in about 10 minutes. Here it is:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2010-01-08.v02.html

Canada employment data

Posted: 08 Jan 2010 04:04 AM PST

Canada data is here, showing an employment change of -2.6K  from an expected 20.2K and a previous month reading of 79.1K; unemployment rate come out unchanged at 8.5%. Data is quite dissapointing and USD/CAD jumped to the upside, almost 70 pips in a first spike.

Best pair to trade no: USD/JPY

Posted: 08 Jan 2010 03:36 AM PST

Gbp/Usd regained the upside

Posted: 08 Jan 2010 03:14 AM PST

After quite strong inflation reports in the U.K., Pound regained upside momentum, yet remains capped under 1.6060 resistance zone. 4 hours charts show chances of further rises, if 1.6060 gives up. Next resistance comes at the 1.6100 area, followed by a daily descendant trend line coming from 1.64 highs, now around 1.6160. To the downside, 1.5970, 1.5920 and 1.5860 are supports for today.

Eur/Usd keeps falling

Posted: 08 Jan 2010 03:09 AM PST

After German industrial Production come worse than expected, around 0.7% against 1.1% expected, yet above previous month -1.8%. Eur/Usd keeps falling and quotes around 1.4290. Seems we are all already counting on a great Payroll report. Remember why i post about having too much expectations.

EUR/USD Technical points

Posted: 08 Jan 2010 02:16 AM PST

Pair has been ranging between 1.4300/1.4335 since past American session, leaving indicators quite flat at this point, giving as no clear bias. However, take a look at this daily chart: pair is inside a small channel following a strong bearish movement. That’s a formation know as flag, as we have pair hitting bottom and floor almost in every candle, and is consider a continuation figure. Base is around 1.4275 so break lower should signal further falls in the pair. 20 SMA is also pretty bearish and above current price, acting as dynamic resistance.

 

Turning to 4 hours charts, indicators are also telling us nothing, thus 20 SMA is also above current price and turning down; pair has remained very close to the base of the flag these past two days, putting pressure on the downside. 200 EMA well above current pirce supports also the bearish bias. Break under 1.4275 area, should send the pair to test December low around 1.4220, and under that 1.4180 area, strong support for today. Above 1.4365, resistances come at 1.4400, 1.4440 area and 1.4485. Weekly close above 1.4515, will deny previous bias, and turn the pair bullish for next week.

 

Eurozone unemployment data

Posted: 08 Jan 2010 02:09 AM PST

Euro zone unemployment rate just hits 10.0%, exactly the same rate the U.S. has. Pair is down across the board, and i was preparing the technical post, yet put in on hold to comment this. SAME RATE. Dollar is weak after the crisis no doubts, but this is just one more reason why Euro is also weak and 1.51 is not a fair price for the cross. Technical points are underway!

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 08 Jan 2010 01:43 AM PST

Here is majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Slightly Bearish

Gbp/Usd: Slightly  Bullish

Usd/Chf: Slightly Bearish

Usd/Jpy: Bullish

Eur/Gbp: Bearish

Eur/Jpy: Bearish

Gbp/Jpy: Slightly Bullish

Starting the day

Posted: 08 Jan 2010 01:22 AM PST

Hi everyone, and welcome back! As tends to happen in the Asian session before Payrolls, majors remained in tight ranges waiting for the news. What really amaze me is how we need to remember to get use to the jaw-bowing in Japan: now, Japan’s new finance minister toned down his rhetoric about a weaker domestic currency, cooling speculation that Tokyo might act to push its currency higher if deemed necessary. USD/JPY fell to the 93.00 area, after testing the 200 SMA in the daily chart at 93.75 past Asian session. Anyway, the pair holds the bullish tone, and I still see JPY bearish across the board.

Pound is slightly up with Europe opening, supported by some speculation that the BOE £200bn quantitative easing plan is set to come to an end next month, with the Monetary Policy Committee yesterday voting to leave the scale of the scheme on hold. Still I believe that next meeting will be key for Pound, as further data about growth and inflation will be on the table.

Anyway! Something that is also bothering me since yesterday, is that despite NFP are expected around -3K from -11K in November, there is lots of speculation of a positive reading for the first time since 2007. Meaning market has too high expectations: a bad reading could tear apart dollar I believe. An important thing to consider: unemployment rate is expected around 10.1% from 10.0% in November and 10.2% past October. Pay attention to any number above 10.3% or under 9.9% as if unemployment rate changes that much could lead the way. Also pay attention to Canada unemployment reading an hour earlier than American ones: they tend to come in line.

 Here is the link for today's calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!

 

 
Posted by at 6:12 PM

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