Thursday, January 14, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

After data; hourly perspective

Posted: 14 Jan 2010 06:21 AM PST

ECB left rates unchanged as expected, while a really bad retail sales data in the U.S. send dollar down in a first spike, yet again we are with a strong lack of direction in majors. Here are the levels to watch during American session:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2010-01-14.v02.html

ECB Live coverage

Posted: 14 Jan 2010 04:19 AM PST

I will start ECB live coverage in 15 minutes. As usual, remember that rates announcement hardly move market, unless a crazy surprise we are not expecting, but later Trichet’s speech will put the Euro in motion.

See you all there!

 

Best pair to trade now:USD/CHF

Posted: 14 Jan 2010 04:14 AM PST

EUR/USD fighting 1.4500

Posted: 14 Jan 2010 03:44 AM PST

Pair has lost upside momentum, and quotes barely under 20 SMA that turned flat. Still price is moving quite close to it, without confirming the break. Indicators are slightly bearish, yet pair needs at least to break under 1.4450 lows to extend the downside, with next supports at 1.4410 and 1.4370 area. To the upside, 1.4540, 1.4570 and 1.4595 are resistance levels to consider today.

USD/JPY still inside the channel

Posted: 14 Jan 2010 03:28 AM PST

USD/JPY remains inside the ascendant channel, holding a bullish perspective for today, yet now roof is around 92.10, with a stronger resistance above that level in 92.40. Clear of this last will trigger further rises in the pair, and a test of the 93.00 area seems likely then. Supports from current level, come at 91.50 area, base of the channel ahead of 91.00 zone.

 

FED members again

Posted: 14 Jan 2010 02:58 AM PST

Early yesterday, we had a couple of FED members shouting out loud a hawkish stance regarding rates and stimulus.Yet after past American session Beige Book, two other members present their dovish ones:  Dudley said a stronger recovery would be needed before a rate hike and the Fed’s Evans said unemployment would need to fall before the Fed changed its policy. Seems there is no agreement among this guys.

 

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 14 Jan 2010 02:31 AM PST

Here is majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Neutral

Gbp/Usd: Bullish

Usd/Chf: Slightly Bullish

Usd/Jpy: Slightly Bullish

Eur/Gbp: Bearish

Eur/Jpy: Bullish

Gbp/Jpy: Bullish

Starting the day

Posted: 14 Jan 2010 02:28 AM PST

Hi everyone, and welcome. Dollar is up across the board this morning, and Japanese yen down after Nikkei 225 rose 1.4% past Asian session, with some exceptions: Pound remains steady, still under 1.6320 resistance area, and as comment of previous post, capped on the downside by 1.6250 strong area. Australian dollar is also up against greenback, after better than expected employment data, showing unemployment rate fell to 5.5% from 5.6% and the country add 35.2K job positions. Really good readings, that pushed AUD/USD back to the 0.9300 area.

In a couple of hours, ECB will be publishing the results of it last meeting, and rate decision, expected unchanged; a hawkish tone could  favor Euro as market remains seeking for direction there. However, later on the day, also U.S. Retail Sales will hot the wires, and probably this last one will have more effect on the daily trend. Let’s see! Anyway, I will be covering Live! the ECB as usual. Here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!
Posted by at 5:09 PM

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