Tuesday, January 26, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

U.S. Data halted risk aversion rally

Posted: 26 Jan 2010 07:25 AM PST

Better than expected U.S. data halted dollar rally, with stocks and gold up, yet the rise is consumer confidence will probably not be ignored. Pound being the stronger, is now the first running against dollar, as well as commodity currencies. GBP/USD is fighting this 1.6160 strong area should retreat a bit before continuing. Euro and Swissy are still subdue: EUR/USD needs to break above 1.4120 to really change bias, while USD/CHF continues clearly bullish and well above 1.0440.

Hourly perspective for U.S. session

Posted: 26 Jan 2010 06:30 AM PST

Here is the hourly perspective for majors for the U.S. session updated:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2010-01-26.v02.html

Levels to watch for all majors

Posted: 26 Jan 2010 05:58 AM PST

Ahead of U.S. data, this are the key short term levels to watch for all majors:

EUR/USD 1.4120 1.4025

GBP/USD: 1.6170 1.6090

USD/CHF: 1.0500 1.0440

USD/JPY: 89.80 89.30

AUD/USD: 0.8980 0.8920

USD/CAD: 1.0660 1.0600 

Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD

Posted: 26 Jan 2010 05:32 AM PST

EUR/USD technical perspective

Posted: 26 Jan 2010 04:41 AM PST

Eur/Usd is back under the 1.4120 now strong resistance zone, with a slightly bearish perspective coming from indicators at this point, yet still with no clear strength: 20 SMA is flat, yet above current price, momentum is giving a good bearish signal. first support comes at 1.4070 lows area, ahead of past week 1.4020; under this last, rally should extend to test 1.3970 zone. Resistances today, lie at 1.4120, 1.4160 and 1.4200.

 

USD/JPY technical view

Posted: 26 Jan 2010 03:44 AM PST

Past Friday and after several failed attempts,pair finally broke under 100 SMA in the daily chart, that was located exactly around the 38.2% retracement of the last daily upside movement from 84.80 to 93.80 high (where the 200 SMA halted the upside ;) ). Yesterday, and even past Asian session, the mentioned area around 90.40 halted the rally and the pair extended the downside, printing a fresh low, around 89.40.

 

4 hours charts show the pair a bit oversold, so we are pointing for an upside corrective movement, yet i expect short lived; 89.80 is first resistance level to watch, ahead of 90.35 area. Daily close above that level, could change the midterm bearish perspective. On contrary, under 89.40, supports come at 89.10 and 88.70, and will favor the bias.

 

Eur/Jpy triple roof

Posted: 26 Jan 2010 03:16 AM PST

I have been following quite close the 3 major crosses of JPY, and I want to share with you, what I see; first one is this weekly EUR/JPY chart, with a triple roof around 138.60, and the neck in the 126.50 zone. We are under that level for first time since past April, and seems a weekly close here, could well signal a bearish long term trend starting here and now.

 

Daily chart show pair already lost and after losing 250 pips from daily high, pair looks a bit exhausted to the downside, aiming for some upside corrective movement; however, 4 hours charts remain quite bearish at this point, so watch for 126.50 and 127.10 areas as probable resistance levels, that should keep the upside limited, to favor the mentioned longer term fall. Under today’s low of 126.00, next support lies at the 125.20 area.

 

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 26 Jan 2010 02:54 AM PST

Here is majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Slightly Bearish

Gbp/Usd: Bearish

Usd/Chf: Bullish

Usd/Jpy: Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Bullish

Eur/Jpy: Bearish

Gbp/Jpy: Bearish

Starting the day

Posted: 26 Jan 2010 02:52 AM PST

Hi everyone and welcome back! After yesterday’s calm, market woke up: starting Asian session with stocks down as well as gold, European markets opened to the downside, extending dollar and yen rallies. American futures are down, and the U.K. preliminary GDP only helped to push ´em higher: the reading seems to be quite poor, reducing speculation of a hawkish result for BOE’s meeting next week. Eur/Usd lost the 1.4120 area, while Gbp/Usd approached to 1.6100. Commodity currencies are falling stronger leading the way. We have more reports in the U.S., but for now, seems the intraday trend is set. Let me see the technical points, and I will be right back.

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day! 
Posted by at 5:16 PM

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