Monday, February 15, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Hourly perspective for majors

Posted: 15 Feb 2010 06:47 AM PST

Best pair to trade now: EUR/JPY

Posted: 15 Feb 2010 05:19 AM PST

GBP/USD technical view

Posted: 15 Feb 2010 04:33 AM PST

Pound has been hit also by world economic concerns, and testing from the downside, the 1.5700 zone, past 8 months low. Daily charts show pair in consolidation mode, just under 1.5770, and that’s the key level to watch these days: a break above, will suggest further upside corrective movements ahead, with next strong zone around 1.5890, 38.2% of the last daily fall. A break under past week low of 1.5530, will likely send the pair lower, with next big support around 1.5350 area.

 

Intraday charts, show pair holding around a flat 20 SMA, with indicators suggesting no clear bias. Pair has an inmediate resistance around 1.5730, while seems unlikely a break above 1.5770 today. To the downside, under 1.5660 pair has the weekly low around 1.5530, ahead of 1.5285 zone.

 

EUR/USD, big and small picture

Posted: 15 Feb 2010 03:54 AM PST

Euro is under pressure no doubts; economic issues in the euro zone weight, and now everybody is selling the cross, that’s the moment when we should give a step a side, and reconsider if its worthy to do it at current levels, or we better wait.

Technically speaking, daily charts show rally a bit oversold, with RSI at 28, yet with a strong bearish tone coming from momentum and moving averages: 20 SMA above current price has a strong bearish slope above current price. Key level to overcome and also to decide if rally is going to extend lower or not, comes at 1.3495, the 61.8% retracement of past 2009 March/November  rally. Daily confirmations, or even better a weekly close under that zone, will likely mean further downside pressure to come in the pair. With current negative sentiment hitting the euro zone, I believe the upside will remain quite limited for a couple of months. Let’s see.

 

 

For today, seems we are facing a more than quiet journey, with 4 hours charts showing pair consolidating in a tight range between 1.3580 and 1.3640. Indicators are mostly flat, with price under 20 SMA.  I will favor the range, to the downside. Only above 1.3690 pair could extend the rally, while under 1.3580, the 1.3530 is next support in line.

 

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 15 Feb 2010 02:30 AM PST

Here is majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Slightly Bearish

Gbp/Usd: Neutral

Usd/Chf: Slightly Bullish

Usd/Jpy: Slightly Bullish

Eur/Gbp: Neutral

Eur/Jpy: Bearish

Gbp/Jpy: Slightly Bullish

 

Starting the day

Posted: 15 Feb 2010 02:27 AM PST

Hi everyone and welcome, Is so good to be back! I love to have some vacations but after two weeks I really start missing market. I have been in a very small beach town, with really very poor Internet connection, so I followed what happened quite a few compared to what’s usual. However, seems greenback has find a lot of support  especially last week, first, with the European Union failing to concrete a rescue plan for Greece and offering just some “moral comfort”; and second with China tightening their economic policy. Risk aversion is back to market, favoring greenback despite both gold and oil are back up. Commodity currencies are in fact winning against dollar, and that’s not a minor detail. Being holiday in the U.S.  due to President’s day, we have little to worry about fundamental; market is quite thin so is a good chance to take a look at the bigger charts to see what we could expect for this week. I will start with that right now.

Have a great day!

 

Risk aversion has returned with a vengeance and the dollar’s safe-haven status is back.

 
Posted by at 6:36 PM

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