Thursday, March 11, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog


Best pair to trade now II: EUR/USD

Posted: 11 Mar 2010 07:33 AM PST

Hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 11 Mar 2010 06:38 AM PST

Mixed US data

Posted: 11 Mar 2010 05:43 AM PST

US Trade Balance printed a smaller deficit than expected -47.3B also less than previous months. However if my memory is not playing me tricks, “best” deficit of the last 6 years has been of around -25K so only under that value, we can talk of a real improvement in the deficit. Unemployment claims come under previous week, yet above expectations at 462K.   Euro attempted to run higher, yet stocks are pressuring down, and dollar and yen are back up against most rivals in this first spike.


Gbp/Usd consolidating gains

Posted: 11 Mar 2010 05:30 AM PST

Inflation expectatives, helped Pound to gain some ground, and is now consolidating around daily highs. 4 hours charts look pretty bullish at this point thus as expected, 1.5060 resistance area is keeping the upside capped. Pair could now pullback to the 1.5000/10 area, yet as long as those levels hold, a new upside rally is likely. Above mentioned 1.5060, pair should adress to 1.5100 and above 1.5130; however if 1.5000 gives up next zones in line come at strong 1.4940 and 1.4900.


Eur/Usd, still seeking for direction

Posted: 11 Mar 2010 04:42 AM PST

Pair has been moving in a 300 pips range since past February 17th, almost a month consolidating between the 50% retracement (1.3800) and the 61.8% (1.3485) of past year March/November bullish rally. Taking a look at this weekly chart, you will find out how strong indecision is: we have been opening and closing the past 5 weeks almost at the same level: five dojis in a row. I also see kindo fo a rounded floor forming both in charts and indicators, that are saturing at the bottom, also drawing a probable floor that should end up in a reversal, if, and only if, pair manages to close a weekly candle above the 1.3800 mentioned area.

Maybe this end of week US data can take as out of this range.. let’s see! Short term speaking, pair has same resistances levels as it has almost all the week: 1.3685, 1.3710 and above 1.3750, while supports form current price come at 1.3640, 1.3610 area and the strong 1.3580.


Best pair to trade now:USD/CHF

Posted: 11 Mar 2010 03:56 AM PST

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 11 Mar 2010 02:49 AM PST

Here is majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Slightly Bullish

Gbp/Usd: Slightly Bullish

Usd/Chf: Bearish

Usd/Jpy: Bullish

Eur/Gbp: Bearish

Eur/Jpy: Neutral

Gbp/Jpy: Bullish


Starting the day

Posted: 11 Mar 2010 02:41 AM PST

Hi everyone and welcome back! Risk appetite seems to be returning slowly but firmly to currency markets, favoring high yielding currencies mostly this week, or at least halting their falls. Lack of US data has maybe had a lot to do with that yet later today the US Trade Balance, and next Friday’s Retail Sales will bring an interesting close of the week. Anyway, early today, data show UK inflation expectations rose to it highest level since 2008 according to BOE, helping Pound to regain the 1.5000 area; Euro seems comfortable consolidating at yesterday’s high, capped by 1.3685 resistance zone. Here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day


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