Friday, April 30, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Hourly perspective for majors

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 07:07 AM PDT

I’ve been in the GDP live coverage, that’s why I’m a bit late here. If someone was there, I really hope that catched aussie rally ;) . Here is the hourly perspective updated!

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2010-04-30.v02.html

Eur/Usd, technical perspective

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 04:25 AM PDT

Eur/Usd corrective movement is extending in this European morning, with pair above a descendant trend line clear in 4 hours charts. Current candle opened above it, and completed a pullback, yet prices remain above; indocators are also bullish, despite losing some strength, so watch the session high: pair could keep pushing higher above 1.3340 resistance area, with next levels to watch at 1.3385 and 1.3410/20 zone. Supports come at 1.3285, the trend line, also static area, ahead of 1.3230 and 1.3180.

We are having a bullish day in here, thus general longer term perspective remains pretty short for poor Euro: I don’t really believe bailouts  and budget cuts (Greece agreeed yesterday another 24B cut) wull save the day; wil take long to see an economic recovery, a real one in the Euro zone, so general sentiment still remains intact.

Best pair to trade now: GBP/USD

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 04:14 AM PDT

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 03:41 AM PDT

Majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Slightly Bullish

Gbp/Usd: Bullish

Usd/Chf: Bearish

Usd/Jpy:Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Bullish

Eur/Jpy: Bullish

Gbp/Jpy:  Bullish

Starting the day

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 03:39 AM PDT

Hi everyone and welcome back! Market feel a bit more confidence today, and euro and pound are extending yesterday’s wins against greenback, while yen crosses are strongly up as we comment past Asian session Live Wrap up webinar; don’t forget this also could be end of month profit taking, and just short term movements, that at least for Euro, and far from a trend change. Aussie rose but as also we comment here and there these days, sells are still there in between 0.9300/30 and AUD/USD aims for a downside correction, now that tested the roof of the range. Anyway! We have US GDP tomorrow, that will made this Friday even more interesting, so here is the link for today’s calendar, I will take a look and choose my first favorite for today:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day! 
Posted by at 5:57 PM 0 comments

Thursday, April 29, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 06:35 AM PDT

Starting the day

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 05:51 AM PDT

Hi everyone, and welcome back! Market spent mos of this European session in consolidation mode correcting slightly against dollar, except for commodity currencies, that hold their undeniable strength. I would expect aussie to retreat from 0.9300/30 area, while I would not expect further gains in Euro at this point. Unemployment claims in the US come worse than expected a few minutes ago, another reason to limit optimism today (as if we had any) I will be posting in a few minutes the technical perspective for majors.

Have a great day!
Posted by at 7:55 PM 0 comments

The Only Thing New is History We Didn't Know

Lots of people bemoan the fact that we had the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and also that fools and skallywags brought this upon us. So it's fun to read this from the Commercial and Financial Cronicle in 1874, right after the Panic of 1873 when default rates jumped to 14%:

“It was a fearful storm while it lasted, and although every one of course can say now that he knew it was coming, yet the real truth is, its breaking was terribly sudden and unexpected. . . . There are few people who allow themselves to remember long the lessons experience would teach them. If this were not so, there would be many less failures in the world. . . . almost all felt they were carrying too much debt; they would henceforth be out of it. There are now, however, very evident signs that these resolutions have been mostly forgotten. Overtrading, as it is called, is an evil that has ever existed, and pretty much the same epitaph can be written above each business prostration—here lies the result of an attempt to do too much with too little capital. Must history necessarily repeat itself?”

Quoted in Giesecke et al, 2010.
Posted by at 6:16 AM 0 comments

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Euro slumps on more downgrades

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 08:36 AM PDT

Eur/Usd fell to a fresh year low as S&P downgraded Spain to AA, with a negative outlook, reaching the 1.3130 support zone. Angela Merkel comments past with no news as we hear more of the same; risk of further Euro falls are here, udner the low, watch for 1.3075 as next downside target for the pair.

Best pair to trade now II: EUR/USD

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 07:52 AM PDT

Hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 06:33 AM PDT

Beware of Euro

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 05:29 AM PDT

Pair has triggered some stops above daily high, and reached the 1.3240 level in a blink, thus I don’t still feel too much confident on a continuation: rumors and more rumors hit the wires: that Angela Merkel will announce an extension of the loans to 90 Billions, that the ECB will directly be forced to buy Greece debt, any of both will be good for the hegemonic currency, at least for me. Market is quite nervous, perfect moment to go for a cup of coffee. ;)

EUR/USD technical perspective

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 04:31 AM PDT

Taking a look at the hourly chart, pair seems to have formed a double bottom around 1.3140, with the daily high of 1.3217 as neck line of the formation; is a small figure, nothing that could made of this 1.3140 an important support area, yet for intraday trading, could be a bit more meaningful: indicators had a slightly bullish perspective, while current candle is above 20 SMA that lost part of it’s bearish slope; above mentioned level, pair could extend the correction to next resistance area, around 1.3250, 38.2% retracement of past daily fall. Above it, next resistance lies at the 1.3290 zone; supports now, come at 1.3180 and 1.3140 lows, while I see a stronger one very close around 1.3120: if we lose this one, next in line is 1.3075.

Best pair to trade now EUR/JPY

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 04:23 AM PDT

Major’s sentiment for today

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 03:39 AM PDT

Majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bearish

Gbp/Usd: Bearish

Usd/Chf: Bullish

Usd/Jpy:Bullish

Eur/Gbp: Bullish

Eur/Jpy: Slightly Bullish

Gbp/Jpy: Slightly Bullish

Starting the day

Posted: 28 Apr 2010 03:34 AM PDT

Hi everyone, and welcome to this blog. It took S&P to downgrade sovereign credit qualifications for both Portugal and Greece, to made Euro succumb past American session, to levels not seen since April 2009 at 1.3144. Recovery attempts had remained capped by 1.3220 for now. I do see that most of this madness could be blamed on ECB, that don’t want to restructure Greece debt: yesterday, it was paying 20%, really outrageous. We have a speech from Angela Merkel around 14:45 GMT rumors say, she will announce an increase in Greek aid package, but let’s see! Pound slump has no real reason but the need of investors to run back to safety; we read now concerns about hung in Parliament, thus really nothing new right? Anyway! let’s start with a  bit more technical! Here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day! 
Posted by at 6:17 PM 0 comments
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