Friday, May 14, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 14 May 2010 06:50 AM PDT

Ahead of US Retail Sales

Posted: 14 May 2010 05:08 AM PDT

Dollar has pullback from intraday lows, following also a shy pullback in stocks, that anyway remain quite negative. Retail Sales are expected quite low, after previous month reading was revised to the upside: Retail Sales forecast says 0.3% against 1.9% previous, while Core Retail Sales are expected around 0.5% against 0.9% previous reading. With risk aversion, ruling market a worse than expected reading could trigger a sell off in stocks that can only exacerbate current environment and send European majors even lower; on contrary, a better than expected one, could be a good reason to take profits as mentioned earlier, and see further dollar and yen falls.

Gbp/Usd technical perspective

Posted: 14 May 2010 04:27 AM PDT

Pair could have formed a double bottom around 1.4480/90 area, but seems a bit to early to confirm it, as current rebound form intraday low is still under yesterday’s low of 1.4570 that should offer some resistance now; despite not the best shape, both momentum and CCI are heading at least for a bullish corrective movement in the next hours, that above mentioned 1.4570 area could reach 1.4620, and later 1.4260 zone. Again market has been way to short for the past two weeks so I don’t discard a more interesting upside movement later today; however, if we lose 1.4510, pair will likely resume down trend, and approach first to 1.4480, followed later by 1.4445 and then 1.4395 weekly low back early 2009.

EUR/USD technical perspective

Posted: 14 May 2010 04:13 AM PDT

Well, here we are. Bearish pressure has sent the pair trough the 1.2460 support, past March 2009 low, to test 1.2431, thus now back above it, correcting slightly up. If this correction manages to extend above 1.2510, then pair could retest 1.2550/60 area, and even to 1.2620/40 zone, as I do believe this last past two weeks almost straight fall deserves an interesting correction, that could take place later in the US session, if investors decide start taking profits out of the table.

If pair loses again the 1.2450/60 zone, downside renewed pressure could send it test the 1.2410 area; under this last, not so strong yet still support, is 1.2360, ahead of 1.2330, past 6 years low. Technically, pair is approaching to oversold conditions in the daily, yet still has room to go in this 4 hour chart.

 

 

Best pair to trade now:USD/JPY

Posted: 14 May 2010 03:44 AM PDT

I will be updating Euro and Gbp right away, but I go for this one first ;)

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2010-05-14.v02.html

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 14 May 2010 02:14 AM PDT

Majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bearish

Gbp/Usd: Bearish

Usd/Chf: Bullish

Usd/Jpy: Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Slightly Bullish

Eur/Jpy: Bearish

Gbp/Jpy: Bearish

Starting the day

Posted: 14 May 2010 02:12 AM PDT

Hi everyone and welcome back. Friday started with a quiet Asian session, majors almost unchanged from opening levels, thus as always Euro is under pressure, losing the 1.2500 level heading towards 1.2460, as mentioned yesterday in this post: http://blogs.fxstreet.com/advisor/2010/05/13/eurusd-keeps-falling-2/

Pound is also losing ground, as European stocks markets are not doing so well, while yen rises across the board. I was reading some news, before starting to watch majors, and found out comments of Trichet, that really I believe it’s worth to read, and analyze: the ECB President said that central bank had not changed its monetary policy stance and that it is committed to withdrawing all extra liquidity injected. He added that”The additional liquidity that we are providing through the purchase of government bonds will be withdrawn again,” and “We are not changing our monetary policy stance. We are not embarking on quantitative easing. We will withdraw the liquidity that we will inject mainly through tendering term deposits.”

Oh well.. maybe is just me that don’t pay too much attention, but as far as I understand, they are not done withdrawing previous liquidity measures, and they are adding 1 Trillion bucks; still not started but already talking of withdrawing?. Again, maybe I’m a bit slow… so 1 trillionis not QE?. Anyway, don’t worry, I will go back to economy school, and start over again, to be able to keep you updated ;) . Ok, not that bad, he says they will drain liquidity from bond buys with term deposits. I don’t think he is helping the Euro with this comments at this time. Do you?

Anyway! let’s go to what’s interesting, the technical views, so here is the link for today’s calendar, while I begin with my charts:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!

 

 
Posted by at 5:20 PM

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