The Advisor Weblog

Reuters Euro poll
Hourly perspective for US session
Starting the day

Posted: 05 Aug 2010 07:19 AM PDT

You know, I’m not quite supportive of euro current strength yet at the same time, I’m convinced is useless to go against the trend. We traders always try to support our visions with news, or technical views, so being objectives is our primary job. However, I thing of sharing this with you as it has quite a logic behind: it’s a Reuters poll of around 60 analysts, taken between August 2and 4, who predicted the euro would be worth just $1.20 in a year’s time, due to fiscal tightening and weak economic growth plaguing the common currency.

Even more, “median forecasts predicted the common currency would trade at $1.30 in one month and 1.25 in three months, before falling to $1.24 in six months’ time. Twelve-month forecasts were in a relatively wide range of $1.05-$1.38, highlighting uncertainty in the market”.

Could the pair rise to 1.35, or higher before this 12 months forecast of 1.20? no doubts. Is 1.40 or 1.20 in one year useful information for short term traders? Not really; we will get that target and trade in consequence despite price action, losing lots of money in that road; I can’t sell the pair just because Reuters says 1.20 in 12 months. I can’t also buy the pair just because other “guru” says 1.50. However, sometimes is good to know that one is not completely wrong about a certain matter: there is no real fundamental reason for current Euro rise. But Euro is rising, and I will trade in consequence.

Here is the link to the full poll if you want to read it, enjoy!

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE6741TD20100805

Hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 05 Aug 2010 06:52 AM PDT

Just finished the Live Coverage and run to prepare this!

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2010-08-05.v02.html

Starting the day

Posted: 05 Aug 2010 05:17 AM PDT

Hi everyone, and welcome back! I have been at the Live Coverage of the ECB and BOE release, will start another in 30 minutes to cover Trichet words, if you missed previous one. Anyway, a few comments here: EUR/USD vounced past Asian session at the 38.2% retracement of the daily run we have comment here around 1.3120. Pound has also corrected to the downside thus returned to 1.5900 zone. Currently both majors are unchanged after the Central Banks give us nothing new to work with, while Trichet’s comments about the economic outlook and further economic movements will be the focus of the attention. We are not expecting him to be dovish right? Anyway, dollar is gaining some ground right now, nothing really serious. Trend has not been jeopardize yet.

Here is the link for today’s calendar as the day is busy, busy busy! Will come back with some ideas about the Euro, after the last Live Coverage.

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!