Monday, August 9, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 09 Aug 2010 06:31 AM PDT

USD/JPY, trend, BOJ and intervention

Posted: 09 Aug 2010 05:47 AM PDT

Watching USD/JPY quoting at 85.60, ahead of tonight’s BOJ policy meeting and announcements, is making all us wonder what could had happen with the cross: is quoting very close to record lows, and I was just reading an article published in Fxstreet.com, with some comments of Japan automakers companies view, and no doubts, it’s not good:

* Honda’s CFO said making vehicles in Japan at a dollar/yen exchange rate of 85 is “not economically feasible.”
* Honda’s CEO said if the Japanese government can’t stabilize the yen, key export businesses would have no choice but to leave the country.
* Nissan’s COO said he’s “very concerned” about the yen’s strength.

Full article, not mine, could be read here:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/yen-on-intervention-watch/2010-08-09.html

In general, market is expecting some intervention today, could be rates? could be capital injections as on past October? anyway, there is a good chance to see some action and some strong gains in the cross. Could that change the trend? Humm..don’t think so. Watch this monthly chart:

Pair was inside a huge triangle, broke to the downside, complete a pullback to the 101.20 area, and back down. Trend is amazingly strong to the downside rigth now, to call for a trend change; however, after last capital injection of around 10 Trillion yen, the pair managed to rose around 300 pips, before resuming it’s bearish time. At that time, price was around 89.00; we are a bit lower right now, and situation remains the same, so the most we could expect is some upside strong recovery, if happens, towards 88/89 area. Anyway, I don’t expect the pair to regain that today, buy posible this month.

Where can we call for a reversal? Weekly close above 89.50 area, could be it, as per the same monthly chart. Only above 95.00 we could say the bearish long term trend is over.

What is the bottom, if we fall? That, I don’t know, yet I do suspect,if we lose 84.80, we could see a quick, long sell off, in the cross. 84.00 is first target, 80.00 area is next.

Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD

Posted: 09 Aug 2010 04:24 AM PDT

Starting the day

Posted: 09 Aug 2010 04:16 AM PDT

Hi everyone, and welcome to this blog! Quiet Asian session, majors mostly consolidate gains against poor greenback, after past Friday’s US employment data come out weaker than expected: despite private sector jobs rise 71,000, the overall employment fell by 131,000, while unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.5%; the negative numbers, reinforced what Ben Bernanke, FED’s Chairman has called an “uncertain” economic environment, fueling fears of a double dip in the US- We have FOMC meeting this week, and last meeting already resulted in an economic downgrade, and they may consider that another one will only exacerbate double dip fears; a smart move would be to leave it unchanged, to calm those market fears. Yet who knows?

Anyway, summer Monday’s are slowmo so seems we could take the time to take a more careful look at our charts. We don’t have fundamental data to take care off til the Asian session, so will start looking at technicals now.

Have a great trading day!

 
Posted by at 6:30 PM

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)