Friday, September 3, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

And we still have PMI

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 06:49 AM PDT

Well as expected, market reaction was pretty wild in USD/JPY, AUD/USD and USD/CAD, but with much better than expected news, yen lost ground while aussie and cad, posted fresh weekly highs, and at this point give no signs of reversing or correcting. Still we have US PMI in about 10 minutes, another good market mover.

Anyway! here is the hourly perspective updated for the US session:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2010-09-03.html

Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 04:20 AM PDT

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 03:53 AM PDT

Here is the majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Slightly Bullish

Gbp/Usd: Bearish

Usd/Chf: Neutral

Usd/Jpy: Slightly Bullish

Eur/Gbp: Bullish

Eur/Jpy: Bullish

Gbp/Jpy: Neutral

Starting the day

Posted: 03 Sep 2010 03:47 AM PDT

Hi everyone and welcome back. Again Payrolls; US employment data has the ability of distort any technical analysis, and even change trend once in a while. We could expect that for today also: we are expecting a loss of around 101K against past month lost of 131K,  while unemployment rate is expected to rise towards 9.6% from 9.5%. Indeed, discouraging, during a month where weekly unemployment claims rose steadily, and following a quite pessimistic ADP survey.

There are a lot of “if” anyway, yet whatever happens, reaction will be more clear in USD/JPY first, followed by USD/CAD and AUD/USD: those 3 will likely follow stocks and risk sentiment: a bad reading will send USD/JPY to the downside, and commodity currencies will probably lost ground against greenback. Swiss Franc, with it’s safe haven condition, will likely rose strongly also, while Pound and Euro are a bit harder to forecast. Pound has been under strong pressure due to self weakness this week, data continues disappointing in the UK, so could also fall in a risk aversion environment. Euro on contrary, could take US bad data as a chance to break higher.

Anyway, that’s my personal idea, and only with one “IF”, as always, giving the market 15/30 minutes to digest the news, before taking a trading decision, will be the best choice of the day. Here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!
Posted by at 5:33 PM

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