Wednesday, September 15, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Is all about the Yen right now

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 07:01 AM PDT

Early to say if the intervention movement has been successful, Yen crosses hold strong gains despite US stocks opened lower and are still in red, helping safe haven dollar to avoid another slump. Yen remains indifferent to risk, and continues raising against greenback, having approached to the strong descendant trend lime coming from past May high around 94.98. The line lies around 85.85; having gained over 300 pips, a downside corrective movement seems more than possible, yet market needs again to settle down, found a top, and trigger the correction. Depth of such movement, will mark the way; as long as above 85.00, pair has chances to extend gains above the trend line, with 86.40 as key mid term resistance zone. Sustained gains above the level, will confirm the interim bottom set at 82.87, and pair should extend towards 88/89  price zone.

Hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 06:37 AM PDT

Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 04:41 AM PDT

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 04:38 AM PDT

Here is the majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Slightly Bullish

Gbp/Usd: Bearish

Usd/Chf: Slightly Bearish

Usd/Jpy: Bullish

Eur/Gbp: Bearish

Eur/Jpy: Bullish

Gbp/Jpy: Bullish

Starting the day

Posted: 15 Sep 2010 04:35 AM PDT

Well, sort of starting right? Hi all and welcome back! Day started with BOJ, and intervention after Nikkei opening past Asian session. There is a lot of speculation about how much do they bought as their is no exact confirmation on the amount, yet the BOJ has been buying the cross since testing 82.87 past Asian session: first spike sent cross towards 83.70, where BOJ bought again. Early Europe, the bank has also been busy adding, and the USD/JPY reached 85.50 so far, currently consolidating above 85.00 price zone. At this point, movements under 84.70 are quite unlikely in the pair.  Anyway, enough updates on yen; as comment past Asian session, dollar gains where more limited against European rivals after market finally digested the news. Swiss Franc however, holds above parity after worse than expected ZEW economic expectations survey.  Pound manages to hold above 1.5500, despite negative employment numbers early today, while euro consolodates just above 1.2960 support zone. I will update Eur/Usd, while you can check today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!

Dollar recovers against European rivals

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 08:11 PM PDT

Dollar is recovering part of the ground lost past Tuesday, favored by Japan intervention movement. The fact that the greenback reached extreme oversold readings intraday, also favors the cause and EUR/USD approaches to 1.2960 area, coming from 1.3033 high printed past American afternoon. Lose of this level, could take the pair towards 1.2935 and 1.2880/1.2900 price zone.

USD/CHF is struggling to hold gains above parity, after testing 0.9930 currently quoting around 1.0015; above 1.0030 current session high, resistances come at 1.0065 and the 1.0100 area.

GBP/USD lose the 1.5500 level, holding barely above 1.5470 static support zone; lose of this area, should signal a downside continuation towards 1.5420, and put the pair back in the bearish path.

Indeed, past Tuesday dollar slump triggered by speculations over an extension of QE in the US was a bit  overreacted, yet current dollar gains against European rivals are yet to be confirmed. Market needs to settle after Japan movement, and trends will depend on how far, dollar can gain right now.  Broke of mentioned levels, should continue favoring the greenback in the upcoming sessions.

AUD/JPY jumps, posts 7-week high

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 07:52 PM PDT

Bullish momentum in Japanese crosses extends, with AUD/JPY reaching its 7-week high around 79.30. The pair has weekly highs around that level, and after gaining above 130 pips in the last hour, seems logical a short lived retracement or some consolidation under the area, before market dares to push the cross higher. Above mentioned area, immediate resistance comes around 79.80, ahead of 80.40. Pair has short term supports at 78.80 and 78.35.

 

EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY levels to watch

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 07:34 PM PDT

EUR/JPY quotes around 109.60, and taking a look at daily charts, you will find out that’s exactly where the pair has been halting since mid August. Every time we reached this area, price retreated at least 100 pips. Should that happen today? following recent gains, we could see a minor retracement, yet expect the pair to extends gains in the days to come:  above 109.60, resistance areas come at 110.10, August 19th high also strong static resistance level, ahead of 110.80. Supports on pullbacks are lying at 109.20, 108.80 and 108.40, not seen at this point.

GBP/JPY jumped to 131.00, currently retreating from the level, as dollar is heading higher against an already weak Pound; quoting around 130.50, immediate support comes at the 130.10 area followed by 129.60 and 129.00 zine, while we need a clear confirmation above mentioned 131.00 high, to confirm a continuation towards 131.60 and finally the 132.10 area.

Anyway, could be a good idea to give market a couple of hours to digest the news, and settle down. Wide swings could be seen in all yen crosses, thus historically, Japan has been quite successful once it finally acted like this in the past; market has memory, and so do investors. Early to say, if European and American traders also decide to unwind positions, the run higher will have plenty of room to go in the next 24 horus, before we managed to find a consolidation zone for these crosses.

 

Japan triggered intervention

Posted: 14 Sep 2010 07:16 PM PDT

Finance minister Noda has just confirmed an intervention in the currency, with Yen crosses jumping above 100 pips average in the last 30 minutes and heading north strongly. USD/JPY approaches daily descendant trend line around 84.50, also static resistance area, coming form past June high around 92.88. Pair fell to an intraday low of 82.87 low early Asia, from where rally extended to current zone.  Suspect a first round of stops gathered above 84.60, that should favor a continuation rally, towards 85.10/20 zone. Above this last, 85.90 high post past August 30th, around the second descendant trend line coming from 94.98, past May high, is the key level to break: once above it, suspect much more stop losses in the cross, and we will be having technical confirmations of an interim bottom: expect rally to extend towards 88/89 price zone.

 
Posted by at 5:33 PM

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