Thursday, September 23, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 23 Sep 2010 06:36 AM PDT

Waiting for US data

Posted: 23 Sep 2010 05:26 AM PDT

Starting in a few minutes with unemployment claims expected almost unchanged around 450K, market attention will focus mostly in Existing Home Sales to be release at 14:00 GMT. Housing sector has been in the eye of the storm past months, after reaching fresh record lows this year, even lower than 2007 crisis levels. Improvement in the sector could help dismiss further QE speculations that are so heavily weighting in the market since past Wednesday. Still, it takes more than 1 month reading, to convince investors US economy moves away from double dip.

 

Beware of AUD/USD

Posted: 23 Sep 2010 04:39 AM PDT

Aussie has been overall winner this month, having reached 0.9600, two years high against greenback. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens suggest this month, the country is ready for another rate hike no later than October. Even today, having lost more than 120 pips since yesterday’s high, daily chart show the pair overbought and exhausted to the upside. Remember that AUD is pretty sensitive to risk sentiment, so today’s slide in stocks is favoring the fall.

In this 4 hours chart, we see a couple of interesting things:  current candle opened under the 4 hours 20 SMA which is usually a strong dynamic support/resistance level; pair is also aiming to cross an ascendant trend line coming from August 31st, around 0.8860, while 4 hours indicators are heading south, yet still above their midlines. Last but not least, pair has a gap around 0.9260, from a Sunday opening about two weeks ago. Gaps are always filled in forex market… despite sometimes it could take a couple of years ;)

I know you will be probably reading everywhere to buy on dips on the cross. However, this chart is now bearish; the key will be 0.9440 area: if pair don’t bounce around that zone, the fall could extend (maybe not today) to 0.9330, next strong support. Lose of this last, will signal pair is ready to fill the gap.

Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD

Posted: 23 Sep 2010 03:19 AM PDT

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 23 Sep 2010 03:07 AM PDT

Here is the majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bearish

Gbp/Usd: Slightly Bullish

Usd/Chf: Bearish

Usd/Jpy: Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Bearish

Eur/Jpy: Bearish

Gbp/Jpy: Neutral

Starting the day

Posted: 23 Sep 2010 02:49 AM PDT

Hi everyone, and welcome back! a quiet Asian session was followed by a dollar positive European morning. Euro zone PMI services and manufacturing data, has been quite disappointing this morning, as well as German one. The spread on Ireland credit default swaps, or CDS, widened further into record territory, also today, while Portuguese and Italian ones widened too. Stocks then are strongly down, while Euro approaches 1.3300 price zone. Along with commodity currencies, is the big loser today, yet we could understand this as the well deserved correction the pairs needed. Losing some ground is not a trend change.

EUR/GBP sell off is helping Pound post some gains against greenback, aiming to test the 1.5700 price zone. However, the pair remains in past day’s range, far from giving bullish continuation signals.

USD/JPY consolidates around 84.50, near yesterday’s lows, as well as USD/CHF. Both safe havens hold their strength with stocks slumping, so further downside pressure there seems possible today.

The best us yet about to come: we have unemployment claims in the US later today, along with Existing home Sales data in the US; could be interesting to see how market reacts after selling off greenback on speculations about further QE.; here is the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!
Posted by at 5:12 PM

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