Friday, September 24, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

EUR/USD technical view

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 04:06 AM PDT

Here is my fist choice for today, and EUR/USD technical view:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2010-09-24.html

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 04:04 AM PDT

Here is the majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bullish

Gbp/Usd: Slightly Bullish

Usd/Chf: Bearish

Usd/Jpy: Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Bullish

Eur/Jpy: Slightly Bullish

Gbp/Jpy: Neutral

4 hours later..

Posted: 24 Sep 2010 03:56 AM PDT

Hi again and welcome to the European morning! 4 hours later, and market has sent Yen crosses back to pre-intervention levels. EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY are holding partial gains as per Euro and Aussie self strength, while USD/JPY fell to a fresh weekly low of 84.20 before bouncing slightly back up.

Dollar get smashed across the board in the past couple of hours, and despite euro zone data this morning come out better than expected, the only  real reason for this movement is that market just entered some panic and choose to sell dollar. Now we will likely see some consolidation, or even some corrective movements as waters settle down.Will take a look at technical and made some post ;) .

Here is the link for today's calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!

AUD/JPY near 81.00

Posted: 23 Sep 2010 10:20 PM PDT

Aussie tested 81.10 against yen with this second round of BOJ, pullinb back slightly and consolidating around 80.80 price zone. Movement has sent price above 20 SMA in the 4 hours chart, and above past American session high of 80.50, immediate support for the cross. If price manages to hold around this levels, above 81.10, 81.40 and the 82.00 area, are immediate resistances levels to watch.

You gotta love BOJ

Posted: 23 Sep 2010 10:03 PM PDT

And when market was thinking (me included) on risk aversion Fridays, and that with PM Kan meeting in the US with Obama, BOJ will not dare to move, they come back to weaken their currency. Nikkei 225, that was barely positive before the movement, jumped around 90 points to the upside also, around 9525 right now. Far from the 10,000 level indeed, but still positive.

Would this be enough to convince investors, how determined the bank is? probably. Despite the more limited reaction, BOJ intervention seems meant to succeed in time. Current dollar weakness could keep USD/JPY bit more limited to the upside right now, yet if the US economy shows signs of improvement, and QE comes out of the equation, I won’t be surprised to see the cross above 90.00 in the next couple of months.

GBP/JPY added over 130 pips in the first spike, holding now around 133.40; Pound strength seen past Thursday (overall, i do believe triggered by EUR/GBP sell off) favored current bullish tone in the cross, that seems ready to retest 134.00 price zone; once above, 134.40/50 price zone comes next, followed later by 135.05, 6-week high. Intraday support levels come at 133.00, 132.50 and 132.10, not seen for this Friday.  Weekly close nearby or either above 134.00 could be a understood as a midterm bullish continuation signal.

Here it goes again

Posted: 23 Sep 2010 09:42 PM PDT

Yen crosses have just jumped over 100 pips to the upside, and that looks like BOJ; not a bad idea taking advantage of the low volume current Asian session had.

USD/JPY jumped from 84.50 area to 85.40 in a blink with price now consolidating above 85.10 price zone. Pair has completed this way, the double floor seen during past Thursday at 84.25. As long as above 85.10, bias por the pair remains bullish with resistances for the upcoming hours at 85.40/50 and weekly high around 85.93. Supports, under 85.10, are located at 84.70 nd 87.40.

EUR/JPY set a fresh weekly high at 113.75 prices not seen since past August 9th, and hold near the level, as euro holds a stronger bias than dollar at this point. Above the level, 114.20 is immediate resistance, followed by the 114.80 area, 4-month high. Supports come at 113.00, 112.60 and 112.20 now.

Reaction, has been of course more limited than past week one. Market has not been caugth by surprise, so rather than stronger accelerations or continuations, we could expect some consolidation around current levels in yen crosses; furter reactions yet to come, could be seen with European opening.
Posted by at 5:15 PM

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