The Advisor Weblog

Getting ready for QE
Best pair to trade now: USD/CHF
Majors’ sentiment for today
Starting the day

Posted: 29 Oct 2010 04:49 AM PDT

Much has been said and priced-in in markets these last two months, regarding FED and QE. With the FOMC meeting schedule for next Wednesday, markets expectations had rose and fall over the past weeks, leaving a choppy yet volatile board to deal with. Trying to forecast what will finally happen, and how market will react seems a bit bold right now, but in general, market will probably favor greenback if the amount set for bond buying is @ $ 100bl per month over the next 6 months. As market has been pricing in a much bigger number since early September, lower needs or rescue should be understood as dollar positive; today GDP data will be key, as a better than expected number could trigger the assumption on better economic conditions and less QE. In that case, European and commodity currencies will be the first to fall.

On contrary, if we are talking of much more than those $ 100bl and for a larger period, dollar will likely resume its bearish trend. Whatever they do, market reaction will be strong enough to probably set the trend that will rule the market till year end. Later, on Friday, US’s Payroll will just confirm it. Anyway! seems a bit to early to talk about that, just keep it in mind before jumping into long term decisions today.

Best pair to trade now: USD/CHF

Posted: 29 Oct 2010 03:51 AM PDT

Here is my first choice for today:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2010-10-29.html

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 29 Oct 2010 02:46 AM PDT

Here is majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bearish

Gbp/Usd: Slightly Bearish

Usd/Chf: Slightly Bullish

Usd/Jpy: Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Bearish

Eur/Jpy: Bearish

Gbp/Jpy: Bearish

Starting the day

Posted: 29 Oct 2010 02:41 AM PDT

Hi everyone and welcome back! Majors where unable to hold gains as stocks market slumped in Asian session, dragging both dollar and Japanese yen higher across the board, ahead of US quarterly GDP release. There are so many risk factors in the upcoming days, that seems hard to favor a trend today, but is also Friday, and the last trading day of the month and profit taking is also weighting on greenbacks’ favor. Anyway, I do rather trade short term today, and keep my trades closed over the weekend. Still I do believe that bearish trend in CHF and AUD just just started; and that USD/JPY will fell below that 79.75 to who knows where: there is still no bottom at sight. With Euro and Pound, things are quite different; market players are not yet sure what to do. Ranges over the past two weeks are telling us so, yet hopefully, next week events will set the trend for the rest of the year.

Anyway! let’s start with the day; here s the link for today’s calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!