Monday, November 1, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Indian Rupee and Singapore Dollar

Posted: 01 Nov 2010 01:53 PM PDT

Week stated with market cautious ahead of major risk events this week, with the FED and the QE at the focus; EUR/INR closed the day to the downside, with 4 hours charts showing current candle opening below 20 SMA and momentum heading south, while price struggles around 61.60 price zone; pair reached a daily low around 61.35, also strong static support area, so lose of this last should signal further downside pressure ahead with 60.89 and 60.50 as next bearish targets. To the upside, price needs to overcome 61.60 to retest the 62.00 level, followed by 62.35 highs. The double roof remains valid with neck line at 60.50: below this last, pair should trigger the figure of 240 pips height.

USD/INR outlook remains intact: pair is moving in a tight consolidative range with a slightly bullish tone, supported by a short term ascendant trend line coming from 43.83 low, currently around 44.10, barely below current price; break of this last should signal a downside continuation rally towards 43.80 monthly low, followed later by 43.40, levels not seen since August 2008; resistances today, are located at 44.45, 44.65 and 44.90.

 Singapore dollar continues rising against Euro, thus movements had been quite choppy as all across the board; pair quotes below 1.7980 area, 23.6% retracement of the daily rally 1.6940/1.8300 with 4 hours chart showing a bearish momentum as well as a bearish 20 SMA above current price Daily low around 1.7890 is immediate support for the cross, followed later by 1.7840 and 1.7775, 38.2% retracement of the mentioned rally; EUR/SGD will find resistances now at 1.7890, 1.8040 and 1.8085 levels today.

Hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 01 Nov 2010 06:33 AM PDT

Again sovereign debt woes weighing on Euro

Posted: 01 Nov 2010 05:54 AM PDT

Sovereign debt woes are weighing on Euro, as Irish bond yields jumped to a fresh record against German ones, with the common currency approaching 1.3890 daily low; lose of that levle should support some downside continuation rally towards 1.3800/40 price zone. Stocks are negtive, gold losing ground, still intraday positive, and market remains uncertain looking for direction, and I do really believe we won’t found it today ;)

USD Data, round I

Posted: 01 Nov 2010 05:34 AM PDT

First round of US data shows PCE Price index at 0.0%, personal spending  printer 0.2%  from 0.4% previous month, while personal income monthly reading also fell, reaching -0.1% from 0.5%; data is quite negative, and stocks are accelerating lower, as well as gold, that lost over $ 10 in the last couple of hours. Majors spike slightly up against greenback, nothing serious yet. Reactions are quite limited so far, as ISM Manufacturing PMI comes next and seems quite more interesting to trade.

Best pair to trade now: GBP/USD

Posted: 01 Nov 2010 04:59 AM PDT

EUR/USD: still heading nowhere

Posted: 01 Nov 2010 04:56 AM PDT

EUR/USD has been busy these days, going nowhere. Pair has been trading steady in a  1.37/1.40 range,finding buyers at the bottom that profit quick at the top. Moving inside a descendant channel, pair has found resistance at the top of it today, around 1.4010, while past Asian session bearish spike found support at the Fibonacci level, around 1.3890. At this point, and longer term talking, there is no trend to follow: I do really believe we need to wait all this long risk event week to have the chance to see something more clear in the cross; as per now, trading the range seems the wisest idea.

4 hours charts show indicators above their mid-lines, yet heading south, while 20 SMA is losing bullish strength; pair has an immediate support at 1.3935, followed then by 1.3890 price zone; lower levels are not seen today, yet below this last, 1.3840 is next. Resistances now are located at 1.3980, 1.4010 and 1.4050 price zone.

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 01 Nov 2010 04:29 AM PDT

Here is majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Slightly Bearish

Gbp/Usd: Bullish

Usd/Chf: Bullish

Usd/Jpy: Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Bearish

Eur/Jpy: Bearish

Gbp/Jpy: Bearish

Starting the day

Posted: 01 Nov 2010 04:27 AM PDT

Hi everyone, and welcome back! Week opened with dollar weak across the board, thus with Nikkei opening, a strong dollar spike that last less than 10 minutes, left investors lost over the first trading hours: USD/JPY spiked from 80.40 to 81.50, and everyone screamed “intervention” thus the fact is that seemed more like a rumor run rather than an official movement. Majors erased losses an even reached fresh highs with Aussie approaching0.9900 and Euro testing 1.4000 price zone. Gold supported market as the metal has been trading above $1360 since early Asia, still holding daily gains. Early UK data was better than expected, favoring GBP/USD bullish momentum, that extends today; stocks had turned negative at this time of the day, yet market is quite mixed: USD/CHF approaches 0.9900 price zone, as the interim bottom comment past week suggest the pair will continue rising mid term. EUR/USD is retreating (again) from 1.4000, traders are not comfortable above that level, and while Pound holds it’s strength, so does JPY, that quotes near daily low of 80.30 against greenback.

We have some first line reports today, so here is the link for today’s calendar; still I will expect market to remain cautious and choppy ahead of Central Banks and US Payrolls:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!
Posted by at 5:28 PM

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)