Wednesday, November 3, 2010

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Indian Rupee and Singapore Dollar

Posted: 03 Nov 2010 02:09 PM PDT

Singapore dollar reached a fresh all time high against greenback after FOMC meeting, with the pair reaching 1.2831 after the release; consolidating barely above the level, around 1.2850, pair holds a strong bearish bias according to 4 hours chart, with 20 SMA strongly down acting as dynamic resistance around 1.2880 now. Hourly chart support the bias, with indicators bearish and heading south, far from any correction or exhaustion reading. Below 1.2830 mentioned low, immediate supports come at 1.2800 psychological level, and 1.2850 projected zone. To the upside, resistances are located at 1.2880, 1.2920 and 1.2950/60 price zone.

USD/INR is mostly unchanged, holding above 44.00 and inside past weeks range, with a slightly bearish tone ahead of Nikkei opening; however, no strength is seen at this point and only below 43.83 past month low, pair could trigger more interesting selling rallies towards the 43.40 price zone. Resistances now, are located at 44.45, 44.65 and 44.90.

EUR/INR resumed its bullish tone with both, 4 hours and daily chart showing a strong momentum while prices extends towards fresh daily highs at the time of writing, around 62.55, levels not seen since March this year. Now price is above previous roof of 62.35, now immediate support for the cross, ahead of 62.00 and 61.60, yet this last, hardly seen in the upcoming hours. Above 62.60, pair could extend gains towards 63.00 price zone, ahead of 63.40.

Dollar sunks after FOMC

Posted: 03 Nov 2010 12:35 PM PDT

Petty wild the last hour, with spikes of almost 200 pips in several major crosses, after FOMC finally announced “the Committee intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program.” A bit above market expectations of around $ 500B, news are not good for dollar; this is more printing, more devaluation, and maybe in the long run inflation for the US, but now and today, dollar is bearish and will probably remain so.

Rallies had settle with EUR/USD around 1.4100 and AUD/USD above parity. Commodity currencies had room to go after the news as well as Euro and Swiss Franc, now that the SNB is considering a rate hike in the short term. Pound seems not yet strong enough to overcome recent weakness.

We could now expect some consolidation across the board, short term corrections favoring dollar, yet dollar is set to extend its slide once Asian comes to play; expect USD/JPY to remain limited to the upside below 81.50/82.00, aiming to retest yearly low around 80.30.

Hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 03 Nov 2010 06:50 AM PDT

Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD

Posted: 03 Nov 2010 05:03 AM PDT

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 03 Nov 2010 05:01 AM PDT

Here is majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bullish

Gbp/Usd: Bullish

Usd/Chf: Bearish

Usd/Jpy: Slightly Bullish

Eur/Gbp: Bearish

Eur/Jpy: Bullish

Gbp/Jpy: Bullish

Starting the day

Posted: 03 Nov 2010 04:46 AM PDT

Hi everyone and welcome back! Dollar sell-off continues ahead of FOMC, with Pound and Cad leading the way; GBP/USD is above 1.6100, favored by better than expected data in the UK and rising oil prices. The barrel approaches $ 85, with a yearly high just 2 bucks above. AUD/USD remains hovering around parity, while CHF strengthen against greenback as the SNB member start talking about low interest rates no good for economy; the housing market has suffered on this topic lately, and won’t be strange to see Switzerland rising rates in the short term despite CHF strength.

Euro, despite below yesterday’s high, remains pushing higher after completing a pullback to the roof of the broken channel. Seems 1.4160 October high is quite at sight today. We have several fundamental news, that could trigger some position adjustment in the upcoming hours, so here is the link for todays’ calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!
Posted by at 5:17 PM

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