Thursday, January 20, 2011

Examples of the Consensus

Robin Hanson reminds us that the scientific consensus is often wrong. Ron Bailey did a Nexis search of the phrase 'scientific consensus over the past 25 years, and found the following:
  • saccharin causes cancer in humans
  • dietary fiber appeared to reduced the incidence of colon cancer.
  • agents found to cause cancer in animals should be considered suspect human carcinogens
  • fusion energy reactors would produce more energy than it consumed within five years
  • acid rain is destroying lakes and forests

These are no longer consensus findings. He did find the phrase 'scientific consensus' in regards to uncertainty about when life starts, which probably still stands. Yet in all, that's a pretty weak record for the consensus.

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