Monday, April 4, 2011

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 04 Apr 2011 06:29 AM PDT

Quiet, almost boring Monday, the dollar seems heading for more falls in the US session; here is the technical perspective for major crosses:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2011/04/04/02/

EUR/USD technical view

Posted: 04 Apr 2011 04:54 AM PDT

EUR/USD continues trading inside the daily ascendant channel, with a bullish bias short and long term talking; the 4 hours chart shows indicators above their midlines, yet losing momentum, while price is well above a bullish 20 SMA and capped to the downside now, by 1.4180 static support zone. Too far away, base of the channel lies today around 1.4040, and slowly increasing. Guess the line will hold at least until Thursday's rate decision, and TRichet's speech. For today, lose of mentioned 1.4180 could send the cross lower towards the 1.4120/30 area, while the upside seems quite messy now, although above 1.4245, we could see a bullish extension towards the 1.4280 price zone, past November high. Break above this last, should be understood as a continuation of the dominant bullish trend, with 1.45 then at sight.

 


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Best pair to trade now: GBP/USD

Posted: 04 Apr 2011 03:24 AM PDT

Starting the day,again

Posted: 04 Apr 2011 02:26 AM PDT

Hi all and good day! In my old blog, I started every day with this Starting the day post, but today I added the "again" for one reason; you know, I'm not the kind of person that shares personal stuff on here, but the little I did, was about the man that helped me to be what I am: my dad. He had a severe stroke 10 days ago, and pass away past Wednesday; I feel like anything worths nothing anymore. Still, among what he tought me, was to never give up, and never  quit. That's why today, starting again with my life is so different for me, despite is still the same. Will honor him, being better in everything, everytime.

 

So, what's going on with markets? Optimism seems the name of the game; economies are growing, rate hikes are back on the table even in the US, after past Friday's positive employment numbers, and safe haven Swissy and Yen are down against major rivals, after reaching record highs against greenback. Euro trades around 1.4200 yearly high, as market expects a rate hike this week. Still I guess the pricing in has been quite excesive and maybe, just maybe a 0.25 bp hike won't be enough at this point; further more, if the ECB does not confirm more hikes from now on, the common currency can be trashed across the board.

 

Commodities continue to be the stone in the dollar's shoe: oil and gold remain strong at year highs, not looking like giving up anytime soon; AUD and CAD then, are meant to hold current strength against greenback, despite intraday corrective movements.  And regarding Pound, honestly, I can't see too much of a trend right now there; more range trading should be expected this week, favoring the downside and with 1.6300 area as the roof.

 

Mondays' lately tend to be choppy and with not much of a volume, and seems today is not going to be an exception; from the fundamental side, little or nothing we have ahead; anyway here is the link for today's calendar:

 

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

 

Have a great trading day!
Posted by at 5:59 PM

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