The Advisor Weblog

Another downgrade for Portugal
Hourly perspective for the US session
USD/JPY long term outlook
Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD
Starting the day

Posted: 06 Apr 2011 06:48 AM PDT

Portugal jitters are again weighting on Euro, as this time Moody's rating agency downgraded Portuguese government-related issuers. EUR/USD fell as low as 1.4270, before bouncing back up, now again approaching to 1.4300. Stocks higher, and gold near $ 1460/oz, should keep the downside limited. Let's see it the cross manages to regain 1.4300/10 area.

Hourly perspective for the US session

Posted: 06 Apr 2011 06:25 AM PDT

Here is the hourly perspective updated for the US session:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2011/04/06/02/

USD/JPY long term outlook

Posted: 06 Apr 2011 04:31 AM PDT

Looking at USD/JPY daily chart, the long term outlook has turned pretty much bullish for the corss, with several technical factors supporting the view; first of all break above 84.40/50 area, 7 months high, and price steady above it. Yet even more interesting, price is above 200 DMA (green in the chart) first time since June 2010. 100 DMA, yellow in chart, is still below 200 one, and that's maybe not so good, while the 86.00 area seems next strong level to overcome. If so, the longer term bullish trend will be confirmed, and 92/93 area is a reasonable target.

Below 84.40/50, key and ultimate support should be the 200 DMA, now around 83.70. Lose of this last would jeopardize the growing bullish momentum.

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Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD

Posted: 06 Apr 2011 03:17 AM PDT

Here is my first choice for today:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2011/04/06/

Starting the day

Posted: 06 Apr 2011 02:58 AM PDT

Hi everyone and welcome back! Markets confidence continues to be in good shape, with dollar and yen the overall lossers this Wednesday, and stocks and commodities up in the day. EUR/USD struggles with 1.4300, finally above November 2010 monthy high; a bit bold to take a stance a day before ECB, yet a daily close here, should mean further gains with 1.45 now at sight.

Pound was hit by really negative industrial production data, and fell from 1.6360 to current 1.6280 area. Still, seems dollar weakness will prevail, and 1.6400, late March high remains as next bullish target.

Swiss Franc accelerated higher against major rivals as Switzerland CPI rose unexpectedly to 0.6% on monthly basis, with USD/CHF back below 0.9200, and resuming the long term bearish trend. Slightly oversold in smaller time frames, maybe a small consolidation before further falls are to be expected.

Yen crosses are the star performers, quoting at multi months highs: USD/JPY next level to watch comes at 86.10 area, while EUR/JPY has 125.00 once firm above current 122.00 daily high. Both are quite overbought right now, yet yen crosses are not the best pullback performers in history: once they found a trend, there they go. Maybe some consolidation or volume breaks to the upside could do the job.

Canadian dollar is up at a fresh 3 years high against greenback, with USD/CAD at 0.9600; lose of this last, sees little or not support until 0.9440 area.

There is little fundamental data ahead to take care of, yet here is the link for today's calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!