The Advisor Weblog

Commodities tumble
Dollar sunks to fresh lows
Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD
Starting the day

Posted: 12 Apr 2011 07:33 AM PDT

Not sure what trigger the movement, yet commodities fell to fresh weekly lows, with oil reaching $ 106 per barrel before halting the slide and gold over $ 20/oz lower in less than an hour, nor around $ 1452. Dollar bearish momentum was temporarly interrupted, yet currencies seem to be ready to regain the lost ground. Only USD/CAD remains higher, with CAD losing ground also after BOC left rates unchanged.

EUR/USD however, is managing to hold into recent gains around 1.4500. Beware of USD/JPY upcoming slide.

Dollar sunks to fresh lows

Posted: 12 Apr 2011 05:35 AM PDT

Dollar is being hit across the board, with EUR/USD at 1.4500 and USD/CHF below 0.9000 as commodities remain strong and Wall Street futures turn positive. US Trade Balance show a widder deficit than expected, although lower than previous month.

Take a look at AUD/USD daily candle, quite a good example where the interest is these days.

GBP/USD can't overcome 1.6300, only above 1.6320 further gains could be seen, and USD/JPY has been capped by 84.40/50 price zone. Still not the most clear pair to trade right now, at least for me.

Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD

Posted: 12 Apr 2011 03:56 AM PDT

Here is my first choice for today:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2011/04/12/

Starting the day

Posted: 12 Apr 2011 03:24 AM PDT

Hi everyone and welcome back! Past Asian sessionduring the daily review webinar, was commenting with the guys the fact that low volume Mondays are hardly good to advance market movements, and that only with Tuesday continuations over the European session, we can talk about dollar recoveries at least in the short term. However, and despite quite disappointing data in the euro zone, the greenback is back down against major rivals, except Pound. Gold and oil are half way to erase yesterday's loses, Euro approaches to 1.4490 resistance area while USD/CHF is testing 0.9000 price zone. Commodity currencies also regained some ground, still limited as stocks in Europe remain negative, while yen crosses extended the bearish corrections as expected, only to bounce back higher. USD/JPY however, is now capped below 84.40/50; if above, furhter gains are yet to be expected, yet failure at this area could send the pair back near 83.00.

Following current movements, I would expect some consolidation ahead of US Trade Balance, favoring furhter dollar slides. Deficit is expected to shrink slightly, still quite high above $ 44B; best reading over the past 10 years if I'm not wrong, was a deficit of arround 26B, so we are far away from shocking numbers that can affect current trend.

Anyway, here is the link for today's calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great trading day!