Monday, October 4, 2010

John Kenneth Galbraith


Nice evisceration of John Kenneth Galbraith in the WSJ. He was wrong on all his major arguments, namely that the market was always overvalued and about to crash (from 1954 onward this was his familiar refrain),that large companies had huge advantages over small ones via their price setting ability and 'planning', and that those who argued against him were spouting 'conventional wisdom' (his liberalism was the conventional wisdom throughout his life). Lastly, he was fond of mentioning all the good things the Soviet Union did compared to the United States. He was always one of the world's most esteemed economist, highlighting that 'famous' doesn't mean 'profound'.

Galbraith was one of the first to criticize the capitalist economy for its prosperity, what he called private affluence, as if the new cars and computers being made were wastes of money relative to more spending on schools (really anything, as long as the government spent it). Hayek had a great comment on Galbraith in his essay The Non-Sequitur of the Dependence Effect:
I believe the author would agree that his argument turns upon the "Dependence Effect". The argument starts from the assertion that a great part of the wants, which are still unsatisfied in modern society are not wants which would be experienced spontaneously by the individual if left to himself but are wants which are created by the process by which they are satisfied. It is then represented as self-evident that for this reason such wants cannot be urgent or important. This crucial conclusion appears to be a complete non sequitur and it would seem that with it the whole argument of the book collapses.

The first part of the argument is of course perfectly true: we would not desire any of the amenities of civilization-or even of the most primitive culture - if we did not live in a society in which others provide them. The innate wants are probably confined to food shelter, and sex. All the rest we learn to desire because we see others enjoying various things. To say that a desire is not important because it is not innate is to say that the whole cultural achievement of man is not important.

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog


Hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 04 Oct 2010 06:44 AM PDT

Best pair to trade now: AUD/USD

Posted: 04 Oct 2010 05:15 AM PDT

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 04 Oct 2010 05:14 AM PDT

Here is the majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bullish

Gbp/Usd: Slightly Bullish

Usd/Chf:  Bearish

Usd/Jpy: Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Bearish

Eur/Jpy: Slightly Bearish

Gbp/Jpy: Slightly Bearish


Starting the day

Posted: 04 Oct 2010 05:09 AM PDT

Hi everyone and welcome back! Week started with majors giving up some gains against dollar, favored by market sentiment and falling stocks, thus nothing really that could affect trend. On contrary, having tested supports and rebounded back up, EUR/USD at 1.3660 area, AUD/USD at 0.9650, suggest corrections are complete and pairs could aim to resume their bullish trend.

Still, won’t be an easy week: we have BOJ and RBA in the upcoming Asian session, BOE and ECB this Thursday, NFP in the US on Friday. If dollar continues bearish by Friday, trend will probably extend for the rest of the year. However is not so simple: let’s see what’s the stance of each Central Bank:

BOJ: we know the bank is worried about the yen strength; they have intervene, market has ignored the movement, and we are 30 pips away of the 15-year low, in what still is a clear bearish trend: can they revert it? Well, they have injected 10 Trillion yens by the ends of 2009, weakening partially yen. Still we where around 90.00 by that time, we are at 83.00 now.

RBA: past month, governor Glenn Stevens almost asurared a rate hike for this month. Many economist expect a 0.25% rate hike, and talk about parity in the cross. However, Australian economy, despite the stronger, has been giving sings of faltering, particularly in the housing sector lately. If pair rose to current levels, is because investors had been pricing in the hike. A not so hawkish comment, and a non change, will probably trigger a downside rally in aussie.

BOE: there is a small, really small chance they announce further QE, another dollar favored rally there, mostly with Pound so weak compared to other rivals against greenback.

ECB: I expect Trichet to offer the usual non event; despite euro zone woes, no rate change, no QE is expected.

So in general we have an scenario that points against the dominant trend. Will if be enough to change it? Price action will tell; unless strong support levels give up, seems dificult. However, these are the only reports that have the hability to change trend, at least in my humble opinion. Anyway! let’s focus on today;

Here is the link for today's calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!