The Advisor Weblog

Hourly perspective for US session
Best pair to trade now: AUD/USD
Majors’ sentiment for today
Starting the day

Hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 04 Oct 2010 06:44 AM PDT

Here is the hourly perspective for current US session:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2010-10-04.v02.html

Best pair to trade now: AUD/USD

Posted: 04 Oct 2010 05:15 AM PDT

Here is my first choice for today:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2010-10-04.html

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 04 Oct 2010 05:14 AM PDT

Here is the majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bullish

Gbp/Usd: Slightly Bullish

Usd/Chf: Bearish

Usd/Jpy: Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Bearish

Eur/Jpy: Slightly Bearish

Gbp/Jpy: Slightly Bearish

Starting the day

Posted: 04 Oct 2010 05:09 AM PDT

Hi everyone and welcome back! Week started with majors giving up some gains against dollar, favored by market sentiment and falling stocks, thus nothing really that could affect trend. On contrary, having tested supports and rebounded back up, EUR/USD at 1.3660 area, AUD/USD at 0.9650, suggest corrections are complete and pairs could aim to resume their bullish trend.

Still, won’t be an easy week: we have BOJ and RBA in the upcoming Asian session, BOE and ECB this Thursday, NFP in the US on Friday. If dollar continues bearish by Friday, trend will probably extend for the rest of the year. However is not so simple: let’s see what’s the stance of each Central Bank:

BOJ: we know the bank is worried about the yen strength; they have intervene, market has ignored the movement, and we are 30 pips away of the 15-year low, in what still is a clear bearish trend: can they revert it? Well, they have injected 10 Trillion yens by the ends of 2009, weakening partially yen. Still we where around 90.00 by that time, we are at 83.00 now.

RBA: past month, governor Glenn Stevens almost asurared a rate hike for this month. Many economist expect a 0.25% rate hike, and talk about parity in the cross. However, Australian economy, despite the stronger, has been giving sings of faltering, particularly in the housing sector lately. If pair rose to current levels, is because investors had been pricing in the hike. A not so hawkish comment, and a non change, will probably trigger a downside rally in aussie.

BOE: there is a small, really small chance they announce further QE, another dollar favored rally there, mostly with Pound so weak compared to other rivals against greenback.

ECB: I expect Trichet to offer the usual non event; despite euro zone woes, no rate change, no QE is expected.

So in general we have an scenario that points against the dominant trend. Will if be enough to change it? Price action will tell; unless strong support levels give up, seems dificult. However, these are the only reports that have the hability to change trend, at least in my humble opinion. Anyway! let’s focus on today;

Here is the link for today's calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!