The Advisor Weblog

Major crosses forecast
Just sell the greenback
Hourly perspective for US session
Intervention erased
Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD
Majors’ sentiment for today
Starting the day

Posted: 01 Oct 2010 08:02 AM PDT

Fxstreet.com has launched a a new Experts Forecast Currency Poll for major crosses, with several analyst prospects for each one. Could be interesting to follow, here is the one for EUR/USD:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-forecasts/experts-forecast-currencies-poll/2010-10-01.html

Just sell the greenback

Posted: 01 Oct 2010 07:16 AM PDT

Data is bad? US will need more QE, dollar is no good. Data is good? OK then risk appetite, let’s sell the dollar a bit more!.

Seriously, and as I always say, fundamentals can’t change a trend when we have one. Don’t fight it, just follow it. Wait for deeps to get better entry points, and that’s it. Don’t get excessively confident: corrections do happen sometimes.

Hourly perspective for US session

Posted: 01 Oct 2010 06:32 AM PDT

Here is the hourly perspective for the US session:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2010-10-01.v02.html

Intervention erased

Posted: 01 Oct 2010 04:07 AM PDT

As comment yesterday during the GDP Live Coverage, is never a good idea try to catch a falling knife. Or in this case, try to find a bottom to this cross, or buy just because BOJ will intervene. USD/JPY has erased all post intervention gains, and continues heading south. This is the COT chart, for the past 3 years:

Green line, above blue, is just telling me that the large traders, the “smart money”, is long in yen. A good reason not to go against it. Readings support here, further yen strength. At least, till Tuesday: BOJ will be announcing Japan monetary policy then. Maybe, just Maybe, they will do something interesting to weaken yen. In the mid time, COT is also showing as that we are far from extreme readings, suggesting a bottom has not been seen yet.

All the bulls that are actually praying for BOJ intervention, have probably placed stops just under that 82.90 low. Expect a selloff in the cross, it those stops start to being hit. 82.50 and 82.10 are downside targets for today.

Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD

Posted: 01 Oct 2010 03:41 AM PDT

Here is my first choice for today:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/forex-strategy/the-best-pair-to-trade-now/2010-10-01.html

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 01 Oct 2010 02:59 AM PDT

Here is the majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bullish

Gbp/Usd: Bullish

Usd/Chf: Slightly Bearish

Usd/Jpy: Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Slightly Bearish

Eur/Jpy: Bullish

Gbp/Jpy: Bullish

Starting the day

Posted: 01 Oct 2010 02:51 AM PDT

Hi all and welcome back! Past Thursday’s corrective movements where just enough to give further strength to the trend, and Euro is testing 1.3760 right now, while Aussie and Yen are a couple of pips away from the multi-year highs set past month; early data has been disappointing in Europe, but who cares?. Gold is testing yesterday’s all time high near $ 1316/oz, oil is above $ 80 a barrel, and the world continues getting rid of their greenbacks.

I was asked early this week why Euro is rising so strongly, and my opinion is that, besides the well-known safe havens, there is nowhere else to turn to. Euro as currency is absorbing the rest of the economic problems: while FED left doors open for QE 2 months ago, BOE’s member Posen said past Tuesday that the UK might follow suit. Japan will discuss next week how to ease their monetary policy and is determined to (if not likely) weaken their currency. The Australian dollar could be the other preferred buy these days, yet market talk is already crowded with how soon the RBA will come out to halt the rally. As a consequence, Euro is the only currency with a central bank allowing it to float freely, not showing any signs of halting the run. Here is the full article if you want to read it:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-bullish-despite-eurozone-news/2010-09-30.html

Anyway! Will tke a look at technicals; here is the link for today's calendar:

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!