Wednesday, November 25, 2009

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

An scenario that can support greenback

Posted: 25 Nov 2009 07:18 AM PST

At this extreme levels, first thing that comes to our minds is maybe “goodbye dollar” and trend strong continuations. However, we are seeing some small corrections favoring the American currency, yet the only scenario that could trigger some dollar strength could be stocks up, and gold down strongly.  None of them is happening right now. Yet gold is giving up a bit (profit taking before Thanksgiving?) while stocks are holding after better than expected housing report. Commodity currencuies are falling quite strongly compared to the rest against greenback. I’m just thinking out loud. Let’s see how the day ends.

Hourly majors’ perspective

Posted: 25 Nov 2009 06:40 AM PST

Some shy corrective movements are developing mostly due to extreme overbought conditions against greenback in the hourly. Still, nothing serious.

Here is the hourly perspective for the American session:

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2009-11-25.html

Best pair to trade now: EUR/USD

Posted: 25 Nov 2009 06:00 AM PST

A bit of calm, before the storm

Posted: 25 Nov 2009 04:34 AM PST

Ok, fresh highs and runs, now a bit calm before U.S. reports. 1 hour of consolidation is what we have now ahead, if gold manages to stays under $ 1182 high. But seems rallies are not over, as majors show no intention of correcting yet. Levels to watch for such corrective movements, are:

EUR/USD 1.5010

GBP/USD 1.6650

USD/CHF 1.0040

USD/JPY 88.20

Swiss Franc under parity

Posted: 25 Nov 2009 04:08 AM PST

Swiss Franc has tested levels under parity, reaching an intraday low of 0.9993, barely bouncing back to 1.0015 and still bearish; EUR/CHF quotes around 1.5080/90, very close to SNB non official intervention levels around 1.5070. Watch both pairs together: I do expect further falls if USD/CHF breaks 0.9980, with next support at 0.9980. That will push also EUR/CHF a bit lower, and maybe this month, intervention won’t wait till the last day of the month. USD/CHF resistances for next hours will be at 1.0030, 1.0070 and the 1.0100 area.

 

USD/JPY heading lower

Posted: 25 Nov 2009 03:55 AM PST

Pair has been all year in a strong downtrend, and is quickly approaching to the year low at 87.15 zone. Under 87.50, today’s low, that’s next support to consider, followed by 86.60 area, and 86.20. 4 hours charts show we need some upside correction first, maybe an approach to 88.00 before next down leg. Above that zone, next resistances come at 88.35 and 88.70.

 

EUR/USD here we go again

Posted: 25 Nov 2009 03:21 AM PST

No rest for gold, no rest for Euro. The currency has been consolidating in the past 3 hours close to yearly high, now back at the daily one. With the rally a bit overextended in the hourly, the fact that remains unable to made a stronger downside correction suggest further rises for next hours: above 1.5062, I see resistances at 1.5100 area, and above the 1.5150 level, 76.4% of the monthly fall 1.6038/1.2330. Pair needs to run strongly under 1.5020, to extend some downside correction, with next supports at 1.4970, and the 1.4930 area.

 

Gbp/Usd technical points

Posted: 25 Nov 2009 03:03 AM PST

Pound is testing the 61.8% retracement of the last daily fall, with 4 hours indicators pointing for further gains. We just need a break above 1.6740, that has been quite strong as static resistance zone, to see more upside continuation, targeting 1.6780 area, and above 1.6830 ahead of 1.6830. Hourly charts are showing pair a bit exhausted to the upside, yet for now, downside corrections have found support at the 1.6600 level, so only an acceleration under that zone could revert current bullish bias, with next supports at 1.6620 and 1.6580 area.

 

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 25 Nov 2009 02:36 AM PST

Here is majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Bullish

Gbp/Usd: Bullish

Usd/Chf: Bearish

Usd/Jpy: Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Slightly Bearish

Starting the day

Posted: 25 Nov 2009 02:35 AM PST

Hi everyone and welcome back! As we have been talking about these last weeks, greenback destiny is in gold hands, ad gold keeps rising showing no mercy for poor greenback, today with a fresh high at $ 1180/oz. EUR/USD approaches to the yearly high, and Japanese Yen quotes barely 50 pips away of this year amazing high of 87.15. Despite that, commodity currencies did not run higher, and Australian Dollar remains under 0.9300, despite past Asian session hawkish comments from RBA’s deputy governor Ric Batellino, that said the economy has entered in an upswing phase that will likely last a few years. Greenback is a few pips of the yearly low against Euro, Yen, and Swiss Franc that in fact fell a few pips under previous one. And the American session will bring Durable Goods, inflation and consumer sentiment. Day seems to be more than interesting ahead of tomorrow’s Thanksgiving Holiday, so I will start with charts right now. Here is the link for today’s calendar:  

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!
Posted by at 5:57 PM

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