Thursday, November 26, 2009

The Advisor Weblog

The Advisor Weblog

Hourly majors’ perspective

Posted: 26 Nov 2009 06:35 AM PST

Despite we all expect a really thin market ahead, due to American holiday, here is the hourly perspective for majors.

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/currency-majors-technical-perspective/2009-11-26.html

Happy Thanksgiving Day for all of you!

Best pair to trade now: GBP/USD

Posted: 26 Nov 2009 05:17 AM PST

Slow session favors greenback

Posted: 26 Nov 2009 04:17 AM PST

Slow session is favoring slightly dollar, with commodity currencies leading the way. Australian dollar is approaching to a short term daily ascendant trend line around 0.9150, so under that level, and if gold helps under $ 1180, the AUD could extend the fall to next supports at 0.9110 and then 0.9070, as 4 hours indicators favor further falls; resistances from here lie at 0.9200, 0.9240 and the 0.9275 area.

 

Gbp/Usd after data

Posted: 26 Nov 2009 03:05 AM PST

Pound has fall heavily since Asian opening, after failing to break above the 1.6740 area static resistance area ( we have plenty of maximums and minimums there even in the weekly chart, and the 61.8% retracement of the last daily down leg) and tested the 1.6500 low. Regaining the 1.6550 level after CBI Realized Sales rose above expectations to 13, strongest reading since May 1994, Pound is showing no real upside strength at this point, despite the news. Pair needs to break under 1.6500 area, 200 EMA in 4 hours charts, and even better the 1.6480 area to extend the fall, to the 1.6430/40 area. To the upside, 1.6620 seems to be the key level to watch, as if pair manages to rise above it, next resistances will come at the 1.6600 area and above, 1.6710.

 

EUR/USD remains bullish

Posted: 26 Nov 2009 02:27 AM PST

Despite stocks fall and gold correction, EUR/USD remains bullish after failing to break the 1.5060 support area tested after euro zone reports. 4 hour charts show pair has lost the over bought condition reached yesterday, and despite momentum is a bit exhausted to the upside, moving averages remain quite strongly bullish under current price. Only a clear confirmation under 1.5060, could trigger further downside correction to next support area around 1.5000/20, followed by 1.4970 level. Resistances come at 1.5100, 1.5150, and above, the 1.5180 area.

 

Majors’ sentiment for today

Posted: 26 Nov 2009 01:17 AM PST

Here is majors’ sentiment for today:

Eur/Usd: Slightly Bearish

Gbp/Usd: Bearish

Usd/Chf: Slightly Bullish

Usd/Jpy: Bearish

Eur/Gbp: Bullish

Starting the day

Posted: 26 Nov 2009 01:15 AM PST

Hi everyone and welcome back! Well, here we are: gold kept rising after past American session close, and early Asia spiked to $ 1195/oz, from where we are seeing some downside corrective movement, nothing really serious. Things developed in Asia, as we comment in the Live Wrap Up Webinar last night at 22:30 GMT: Japanese yen break lower, reaching the 86.20 area, past June 1995 monthly high, and jaw bowing started in Japan, (desirable stability in forex, strong dollar in U.S. interest, watching how strong yen may affect Japan economy, etc.) and as usual with no real effects on the currency. SNB stretched their non official intervention level, also as expected, and they waited for EUR/CHF to reach the 1.5000 level, instead of 1.5070,unable to hold to the last day of the month. European stocks are falling strongly, and so do American futures (U.S. markets will be closed today, due to Thanksgiving holiday) with dollar strongly up against most rivals, except Euro, Swiss Franc and Yen. A few minutes ago, Euro zone money supply and private  loan reports come under expectations and even under previous  month readings, really no good news there. We still have some news to watch both in Euro zone and England, buy main market driver will remain gold. Could it finally start a big correction after reaching the 1200 area? let’s see. For what I know, and correct me if I’m wrong, December is seasonally a gold selling month.

Pound keeps surprising me a bit: despite we comment pair hold under key 1.6740 zone, also 61.8% retracement of  last daily fall, I was really not expecting today this fall. Quoting around 1.6500, we are barely 40 pips away from past week lows, so pay attention to that 1.6460 low, as break lower could equal acceleration.

Here is the link for today's calendar:  

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/

Have a great day!
Posted by at 5:17 PM

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